Friday, March 25, 2011

Followup notes on INTC (Intel) and S (sprint)

Hit and Run Items today:
Intel fills gap before noon - now selling @ 20.60 ($.40+) since original "Gap" post a few days
.30+ on 150 (deep in the money) call options +$4,500 (still holding w/ stop at +.20)
Some recent "talk" on Sprint - Google is bringing out "new things on Sprint" why - a small carrier - less politics Sprint Willing - ATT and VZ arrogant - worried about Apple's influence - don't want to irritate Apple. Sprint does not carry Apple Anything - T-mobile subscribers moving faster to Sprint than ATT or VZ
From Fortune Magazine (digital) today:
(Random quotes)
 "When news broke of AT&T's proposed mega-deal with T-Mobile earlier this week, investors sold Sprint stock as fast as they could get it off their hands." 
".... (re: T-Mobile) a lengthy anti-trust review process could distract T-Mobile executives for more than a year, boosting Sprint's prospects in the process."
"I think this deal is a positive for Sprint despite the market reaction," says Dan Martino, manager of the $2 billion T. Rowe Price Media & Telecommunications Fund (PRMTX), 
Martino's bullish bet is his belief that Sprint's long-term turnaround prospects, at long last, are shaping up. "If you're patient, I think you'll make a lot of money on Sprint,"
"The company started this year hot. It added 519,000 long-term subscribers in the fourth quarter, more than even AT&T -- the first time that's happened in least five years, according to Morningstar.
"Sprint has more than three times the spectrum for 4G than Verizon or AT&T, which Einhorn says could be a huge advantage going forward. Already AT&T charges separate rates for data usage; Sprint's plans don't have a limit. Greenlight values Sprint shares at $10."
"If things go well for Sprint, Ellis values the stock at $9; if things go awry, he thinks it's worth $3.50."

Well I have 3 screens running with charts of Sprint and Intel "up", listening to Miles Davis - writing this and Sprint is crossing the line at $4.68 (up from $4.18 on the T-mobile/ATT announcement) It's Friday, I'm meeting an underground wine drinking group at $4:30 - important business... (So maybe Sprint has a downside risk of $1.00+ ($3.50) and an upside opportunity of +$5.40 ($10) - and under most adverse conditions there would probably be a buyout at $5) Spring is coming - Earnings are coming - they will be better than the economy (how do I know - I "feel" look at Larry Ellison's Oracle - most people don't buy the stock because he appears to be unstable as a person - He has played the game they way he wanted against all "social (business) odds" Offensive to many - almost went broke about 4 years ago - couldn't control his personal spending - and yet.... he has been a visionary - he's doing so well - he can't even "personally spend it out" 

ps. There is a controversy on limitations of WiMax 4G (sprint) vs LTE 4G.(T-mobile, ATT VZ) Intel is the MFG of Wimax - and has decided to "Level the Playing field" is now (under production) with a a Cell Antenna chip that receives both WiMax and LTE....Sprint stock has been discounted for having only WiMax - soon to be a lost criticism.  

Who Loves and hates?

VZ and ATT both hate Sprint
Everyone hates INTC except GOOG and Sprint (Margin envy!)
Everyone is afraid of APPLE except INTC ,Sprint Google, and all the "peoples who Know what T-mobile and sprint have
VZ and ATT want the market alone - so they can control high prices for service
FCC - is so far out in the open, even political pressure will not prevent "disaproval" of ATT - T-mobile deal - it will cost ATT lots of $$$$ and Time.  Congress will be afraid to put their "Thumb" on the Scale
it's a big "Catch 22" situation w/ "little Sprint" sitting in the Catbird seat - 

No comments: