Monday, November 30, 2009

Jackpot (Jack) is One Year Old this week


Ever since Lily and Bonita (my previous great dog) became lovers, I have been looking for a new friend.  In the past 2 years, I have had 2 dogs that did not work out.  One went to a Ranch in Utah and the other had an infant disease.

This past summer I visited the Boise Humane Shelter (a first class operation - including a Vet Practice onsite.) I was looking for a working female type dog - Healer, Border Collie, etc. As I passed through the Kennels I got this look (above) from a Male Border Collie/Aussie Shepherd/and ? cross.  I walked by, I walked back, then I walked by again.  I went to the front desk and asked about other dogs, puppies, etc. that were being home cared.

I then asked about Jack.  He had been adopted twice and returned...and then the receptionist said "One of the nicest dogs here - and I'm not hustling you here - he's just too active for being a house pet - very smart...blah, blah, blah.....I adopted him and he has turned out to be the greatest dog I have ever kept company with.

I honestly believe he is a gift from a greater power, for my last stretch in life.  Happy Birthday Jack!! and Thanks for being my friend.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

December Begins with a Full Moon and Ends With a Full Moon - Partial Lunar Eclipse December 31

“Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited."  -George Soros

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Urban Legend - Lemmings - Our Market Environment

I originally posted this on September 7th 2007 before the Recession was officially announced. I am bringing it forward - as we are about to begin the other half of the Charting "W" we are at the small peak inside the "W" and will begin the 2nd half of this recovery, with a slide to declare us "temporarily" hopeless.
(Anger, Depression and Disbelief)

More Banks need to Fail!
Real Estate auctions need to withdraw the "hold back"
(Minimum bid)...and let the property go "at Whatever!"
The Security Markets need to face "reality."
Most current profits are a result of cost reductions.
Finally, we have to face that our base unemployment will
find a fixed 10% new class of "havenots" until they are willing
to accept less and vigorously retrain.

When you look toward January - do you see brighter skies or a "Darkness?"

A story involving incidents of the past, that spreads quickly and is popularly believed to be true.that barely have a shred of truth in them - Urban Legend

Well there is such a story about Lemmings Rushing to the edge of a Cliff and committing mass suicide. While many people believe that lemmings commit mass suicide when they migrate. Lemmings will often migrate in large groups. Often, a small stream or similar obstacle will block the migrating lemmings' path, , causing them to stop and scurry around in a panic until the overwhelming urge to press on drives them to overcome the obstacle no matter what the consequence. In most cases, large migrating groups of lemmings will reach a cliff overlooking the ocean (as is common in their environment), where they will stop until the urge to press on causes them to all jump off of the cliff and start swimming to exhaustion. They, inevitably, drown as a result. (This has been documented)

Lemming suicide is a frequently-used metaphor in reference to people who go along unquestioningly with popular opinion, with potentially dangerous or fatal consequences.


click on image to make larger

In this scenario the lemmings would reach the edge of the cliff at "Anxiety" and drown somewhere between "Capitulation", "Depression" and "Disbelief"

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Warren Buffett - says it well.

NEW YORK ( -- Billionaire Warren Buffett offered some advice to Uncle Sam on Friday: Time it right, but tackle the nation's enormous federal deficit.

In an interview with Charlie Rose, Buffett said if the United States keeps flooding the world with its debt, countries will eventually notice that U.S. fiscal policies are "out of control" and become "less and less and less enthused" about lending to it.

But the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway added that though the United States will want to act "fairly soon" to cut the deficit, it has to wait until the economy comes back.

"We want to put out the fire," he said. "Then we want to quit squirting water on those buildings. We have to know when the fire's out."

And how will we know?

"Well, it will be retail sales. It'll be automobile sales. It'll be when home construction starts coming back," Buffett said, adding that the signs might not be recognized until three or four months after the fact. Still, it could happen in the next two years.

Buffett said that while unemployment might stabilize later, it will also come down to a normal rate.

"We'll create new jobs," has assured Rose, explaining that the United States has created millions of jobs since the unemployment rate was last above 10% in the 1980s and it will do the same this time around.

"Who would have thought that when Paul Allen and Bill Gates were down there in Albuquerque eating pizza and drinking coke at two in the morning, that they were a big part of our future?" Buffett asked. "The American economy will come back. And it won't be tomorrow, and it won't be exactly the same, but in the end, we have not changed the American people and their capacity to innovate or their excitement about becoming more prosperous and coming up with new ideas."

And as far as China beating and growing faster than the United States? Buffett said while China's population is four times larger and will thus grow faster, its economy is still much smaller overall.

"I'll meet some guy on the street today whose net worth will be growing faster than mine on a percentage basis. But if I start with a big enough number, it'll be a while before he catches me," Buffett said, adding that it's a "long way off" for China's economy to be larger per capita than that of the U.S.

'I want to make it painful for them'
While Buffett said Washington came together to respond to the financial meltdown "like they should" have, the government should have been more aggressive in dealing with bank executives at too-big-to-fail institutions that needed government intervention.

"If you run a financial institution that, in effect, can bring down the system unless the government steps in, I think something very bad should happen to you," Buffett said. "I want to make it painful for them."

Buffett said while he's "not for shooting them," the executives should not be able to walk away with even 10% of their previous net worth and the directors who hired them should also be punished.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009