Sunday, August 24, 2008

"It's all about you, Paul! Isn't it?" This one is! I'm in the process of making a sea change in my life.

There is a big story here in my first Kayak experience - actually, I was looking at a horse to buy, two weeks ago (I had been looking at horses from late winter to last spring) - I decided, in traveling, a horse takes lots more energy, time and the time value cost was much greater than the reward. I still will ride horses, maybe a lease - I love riding - just - don't want to keep one. The Kayak experience was an eye opener - the excitement and the rush - exhilarating and thrilling. When you get in trouble you don't have to worry about a "live something" under you (except for the river) and every move you make - changes what's going to happen - there is no horse under you making a separate decision - and that's the game. There are lakes and rivers everywhere. The exercise almost killed me - so when I know how to manage everything - slow learning - I'll actually be happier than I was riding. My life will be more portable than ever. The one compromise I made was allowing Tatina in my life. She is the most challenging dog I have ever raised. At 4 months old she knows every trick in "throwing me off center" - disabling my train of thought - all... so that she can command my attention. I have little tricks and methods that contains her for a new moment until she can develop a "work around" and then she drops her head, raises her eyes - no words, just the look - Gotchya! as she lays down straight with her head between her stretched paws - looks up again - "So what are we going to do?"
Snoopy And Charlie Brown wallpaper
"I like to have everything so good, I can take it for granted"
- charlie brown

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Leading Economic Indicators - Indicate Sick Future


(click on chart to enlarge)

Via the Conference Board:

The leading index declined sharply in July, the second decrease in the index in the past three months. Building permits, stock prices, and weekly initial claims (inverted) made very large negative contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting positive contributions from the interest rate spread and consumer expectations. The six-month change in the index stands at -0.9 percent (about a -1.8 percent annual rate), up from the 3.4 percent annual rate of decline at the end of the first quarter of 2008. However, the weaknesses among the leading indicators continue to be very widespread.

From Barry Ritholtz


Sunday, August 17, 2008

Fall in the Sawtooth - Learning to Kayak

My Birthday is around the corner - and this is my present to me. An Inflatable Kayak which packs down to 50 pounds (3ft. x 2ft. x 1ft.) The Kayak I ordered is a tandem (2 places - convertible to 1) It is 11 feet long and 3 feet wide. Thwarts (round back rests) are movable and can be configured for one or two. The Vanguard is a commercial Kayak usually purchased by outfitters. When I saw her a few days ago, I couldn't keep my eyes off of her. I had to have her....she had no choice!

The paddlers in the above pictures are the promo pictures of the company. Below this post are pictures of me in my first experience.

In ordering, paddles, life jackets, etc. I ordered Tatina her own life jacket. I should be getting this Kayak in mid- September and will move up to a lake near Stanley to learn with some ease of thought before I go to the Salmon River for a big work out - two weeks later or so. - There should be some snow days in Stanley ( 44.21N -114.95W (Elev. 6396 ft) I hope to be camping on the lake at Redfish Lake - a very popular place with very few campsites. My 2nd choices are Altrius Lake. Pettit Lake, Stanley Lake. They all are near each other and have small camp grounds. Motor Boats seem to be a problem at the lakes - but for learning kayaking, using other boat wakes will be a good tool.

Redfish Lake Idaho

I also purchased - for use with the Kayak and my bicycle, a Suunto Watch T3c - heart rate monitor - bicycle wireless speedometer/distance/calories and efficient training rates with vital statistics programmed into the Watch - for the perfect combination of exercise at the training rate for my age, activity level, height and weight.

Suunto T3c Cycling Pack (T3c Heart Rate Monitor and Road Bike POD)

Friday, August 15, 2008

Tatina - 4 months old - likes the view from here


The yellow seeds on the bed are a result of TaTa chewing a hole in my favorite and only Eye Cover

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Salmon River about 30 miles north of headwaters

Salmon River 8-14-08 by you.
Salmon River 8-14-08

Salmon river 8/14/08Salmon River 8/14/08Salmon River 8/14/08

August 14, 2008, Stanley, Idaho, 80 miles north of Sun Valley and 100 miles south of Salmon Idaho. The choice was either to be in the raft or a single Kayak, I only rolled once - hit a rock in Class III rapids (not the rock in the pictures - some "sneaker" that came up out of the water and pushed me around (and out) Great day - Great area

I ordered my own Kayak and Paddles, for 1 or 2 (convertible,) today - I've been trying to kill myself for years, just need some exciting activity - Very hard to find a horse I can just get on and go without personality conflicts. These are Type III rapids - need to get into type IV and V - to challenge mortality and then get my head examined if I 66, which I will be soon, I feel I have to elevate the excitement just to stay even.

Oh yes, the stock market - I was off the grid - it can go on without me.......

STAGFLATION - confirmed by CPI today Aug 14

Stagflation is an economic situation in which inflation and economic stagnation occur simultaneously and remain unchecked for a period of time.

Prices are increasing at a decreasing rate Real Estate has shown no indication of a bottom Bank Failures have shown no indication of a bottom Oil is only at a temporary lower price - should start to rise Labor day ...drift off after and then rise further when heating season begin Monthly unemployment has risen to 450,000 (a high) and will ...proceed to 600,000 (a new level downward - of concern The dollar has strengthened on a perceived improvement in ...a lower Euro Dollar and subsequent Oil Price reduction

Monday, August 11, 2008

From a Respected Commentator - RonSen

I'd view the rallies not as shorting opportunities, but chances to raise cash. Remember the 'powers' have two goals, reduce commodity prices (oil) and raise the price of financials to allow them to recapitalize. That is the underlying 'goal' for Wall Street. If it helps Main Street, that's okay, but their welfare, not yours is the imperative.

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Unemployment is the Key to Disaster at this point

The Labor Department said the number of newly laid off people seeking jobless benefits increased by a seasonally adjusted 7,000 to 455,000 last week, the highest level since late March 2002. Wall Street had expected that new claims would rise to around 430,000.

When this number gets to 600,000 + or - The Economy will take a step down to a new level of concern.

As for Oil - it is being controlled - I'm sure the refineries are not going to let the Barrel Price get fully to the pump - they have been losing on the "crack spread*" when Oil Passed 125 on its way to 150.

Oil prices are just one factor in affecting Consumption, prices, inflation, etc. Unemployment is a result of all of the factors affecting the economy.

On another note: a familiar statement that these big banks are too big to let fail - this is the government's reasoning for the bailouts. Let's face it...nothing is too big to fail. However, there is an economic family who is protecting "their own."

* Crack Spread is the difference between what the refiners pay for crude and sell as Gasoline, Diesel, etc.

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Sun Valley, Idaho - An Exceptional Place

I am enjoying my stay here - probably will be here at least a month or longer. This would be an exceptional area to live, If I were into Skiing.

I began riding (horses) again after a break. I am going to do a Learning/doing Kayak paddling on the Salmon River - Next Week. Sunday and Monday I'm going to the Sun Valley Symphony - When this area needs something - Like a Symphony - there seems to be local well to do folks who provide the Area and costs.

I have no plans to leave here - If I do, I'll head back to Flagstaff then to Cave Creek - This is the first Summer I have returned to the road - and find it less restrictive than staying in one place.

The Securities Markets - are waxing and waning going nowhere - too much talk - and "no walk"
the economy is going into the toilet and everyone is trying to keep that from happening. Man has never succeeded in stopping or changing bad weather - to avoid natural catastrophes - it's part of the cycle - It should be an interesting fall - tied to a presidential election - The eventual bombing of Iran - The Arab (silent) coalition - coming apart and a Chinese Recession immediately succeeding the Olympics - maybe not!