What do you suppose - makes life great? Jackpot watched this video sitting above my right shoulder and at the conquering of the first step he let out a loud bark!

Now you gota ask yourself - Is this proof of Evolution, Global Warming - of an oddity of Texas?

1-888-Hogs Fly if you are interested in ordering slabs of Ribs

Trading into Monday, Some thoughts about Patterns, Clint Eastwood and The Full Moon

T2108 (and MACD included within) called the turn within one day - 5 to 6 trading days ago - as I related in a post THEN. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$spxa50r

More on MACD: http://macd-trader.blogspot.com/2007/01/moving-...

More on T2108 - Search T2108 and read from Trader Mike and Dr. Duru

I have been trading - in the past few days - with 3 15 min Bars/Volume... the profits are greater for less $ in... as the $VIX moved up (what?) 25% yesterday -

What are you watching - what are your signals - what are you missing not using Bar Charts w/ Volume of Course if you have increased the value of your trading account by atleast 125% in the past 6 months well then, what you are using is working well - even atleast 60% - less than that - well you have to look at how centered you are in your trading. Winning is about "how you do it" not what you are (bear/bull/fool) like Clint Eastwood in "The Unforgiven" - slow down and make every shot count - listen to the writer questioning him when he "dropped" the room - "Who did you shoot first? Why, then Who?, etc"

Listen to Whohoo - "so if we get to 950 to 960 area dont u guys think we should be balls deep long" 950 - 960 Why, but when the price gets there - what is happening at the moment - that is how you make your decision - don't pull your gun out and pull the trigger at a # - pull the trigger because a "set-up" is present - and only then!

Finally, in more times than not, The Full Moon represents change. Astrologers differ on the Draw of the Full Moon - does it begin 3 to 4 days prior - or does change occur - within hours, minutes. The Markets have made a change starting last week - so...does that continue as the change or will a change occur on Monday.

I believe the White House made a proper decision in "calling out Fox TV" if the tables were reversed... and a program about abortion appeared on another network - the right wing would call out "The Guard" and intimidate the advertisers. It's time to shove their own medicine up their asses.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
For Fox Sake!
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Health Care Crisis

Nice Hair, Howie!

Friends (and not) of WalMart

Arrogance is an unsightly attitude observed by others. Actually, Arrogance's most closely related sibling is Ignorance. Arrogance and Ignorance are also closely related to the Evanlelistas, the Far Right and Republican Party!

People's attitude toward WalMart Comes to mind. A town in Oregon decided to challenge the challengers.

CORNELIUS,Oregon -- Walmart won't open here for nearly a year, but a few weeks ago, the city manager sent out an enthused e-mail: "I think you can tell all your friends now that they can shop for the Christmas holidays at Walmart Supercenter in 2010!"

Walmart doesn't usually get that kind of greeting from Oregon cities.

In recent years, metro cities from Hillsboro to Gresham have fought -- and defeated -- proposed Walmarts. The superstore drives out local businesses and increases traffic, opponents say. In those cities, anti-Walmart activists rallied in droves. Hundreds showed up at council meetings, protesting until the superstore gave up.

Not so in Cornelius. In the four years since Walmart first announced its interest in building a store there, only one group -- Cornelius First -- has formed to protest. Its ranks were slight, and in 2006, the group disbanded after losing a state land use appeal.

Since then, Walmart's Cornelius plans have sailed through. When construction crews broke ground in early October, no one protested.

The difference, city leaders say, is Cornelius needs it more.

Jobs, community improvement, retail ... what's not to like?

Cornelius calls itself Oregon's family community.

But, City Manager David Waffle says, "All our parents work out of town." The city has the longest daily work commute of any metro city -- 29 miles.

Nearly 75 percent of Cornelius' assessed tax value is residential; that means residents -- through property taxes -- shoulder a larger share than usual of city funding.

Economically speaking, it is a state-certified "severely distressed" city and has one of the highest poverty rates in the metro area.

So when Walmart representatives arrived, promising increased tax revenue, 300 new jobs and millions for street improvements, Cornelius residents rejoiced.

"The mood is pretty fantastic," said City Manager Dave Waffle. "(The town is) very eager."

Waffle said the city does have a few naysayers, but in the past year, hundreds of people have called him to ask, "When is Walmart coming?"

"I get my hair cut across the street from the proposed site," he said, "And when I go in there, they always get excited and ask me about the progress so they can tell all their customers. People come in there asking them when it's coming."

Never mind that two of the city's larger stores are a Fred Meyer and a Grande Foods grocery store.

"That's just good competition, and people deserve to have choices," Waffle said. "Our residents are mostly lower and middle income, and they can really benefit from Walmart's low prices."

Walmart is also a destination, says Jose Orozco, an Intel engineer and a member of Cornelius' planning commission. Orozco writes a blog detailing even the most minute details of Walmart's arrival.

Since starting the blog in February, he's heard from people across the state who say they'd drive long distances to go to a Walmart. Orozco himself often drives 45 minutes to McMinnville to shop at Walmart. The same isn't true, he says, of Fred Meyer stores, which proliferate throughout the metro area.

But, Forest Grove City Manager Michael Sykes adds, "I'm happy for them. They're very excited, and we hope it does bring the positive benefits that they're anticipating."

-- Casey Parks

Dog - Lawrence Ferlinghetti

Dog

The dog trots freely in the street
and sees reality
and the things he sees
are bigger than himself
and the things he sees
are his reality
Drunks in doorways
Moons on trees
The dog trots freely thru the street
and the things he sees
are smaller than himself
Fish on newsprint
Ants in holes
Chickens in Chinatown windows
their heads a block away
The dog trots freely in the street
and the things he smells
smell something like himself
The dog trots freely in the street
past puddles and babies
cats and cigars
poolrooms and policemen
He doesn't hate cops
He merely has no use for them
and he goes past them
and past the dead cows hung up whole
in front of the San Francisco Meat Market
He would rather eat a tender cow
than a tough policeman
though either might do
And he goes past the Romeo Ravioli Factory
and past Coit's Tower
and past Congressman Doyle of the Unamerican Committee
He's afraid of Coit's Tower
but he's not afraid of Congressman Doyle
although what he hears is very discouraging
very depressing
very absurd
to a sad young dog like himself
to a serious dog like himself
But he has his own free world to live in
His own fleas to eat
He will not be muzzled
Congressman Doyle is just another
fire hydrant
to him
The dog trots freely in the street
and has his own dog's life to live
and to think about
and to reflect upon
touching and tasting and testing everything
investigating everything
without benefit of perjury
a real realist
with a real tale to tell
and a real tail to tell it with
a real live
barking
democratic dog
engaged in real
free enterprise
with something to say
about ontology
something to say
about reality
and how to see it
and how to hear it
with his head cocked sideways
at streetcorners
as if he is just about to have
his picture taken
for Victor Records
listening for
His Master's Voice
and looking
like a living questionmark
into the
great gramophone
of puzzling existence
with its wondrous hollow horn
which always seems
just about to spout forth
some Victorious answer
to everything

Kramer - every single enterance in crolonological order

Time finally, to move from PC to MAC - Windows XP will not move to Win7

I bought two Apple MacBook Pros this year. The transition from a PC to a Mac is very easy. Only called tech support once. I don't think there is a person in the whole world that after using a Mac for a month, would ever go back to using a PC.

The Mac experience is wonderful. If you have a question, they have tons of staff available to answer any question you might have.

Oh yeah. lets see I bought 5 HP notebooks 3 years ago. How many are actually working today? Only 2, and one of those one had two mother boards replaced. HP's are total POS.

Let's compare some stats. My high powered HP notebook takes like 5 to 6 min to boot up. My Macbook Pro takes 23 seconds. My HP takes minutes to shut down. My Mac 7 seconds even with 10 plus apps open.

My HP will run for maybe 20min on its battery. My Mac will always go 5 to 6 hours and as many as 10 hrs.

My HP will lock up oh on average once every other use. My Mac locked up once in 9 months.

You screw up installing something on a HP, you end up getting out the original backup disks and starting over.

I completely did a no no upgrading to snow leopard, my butter fingers. The Mac recovered flawlessly from me doing a bad thing during the up grade process with no hitch what's so ever.

Buy a PC ever again. Not a chance in hell. Frankly you couldn't even give me one free.

From Greg at The Slope

On 2nd Thought - Uh Oh?

musings from El Viejo on several of our economies - The Future of the Economy in the USA will probably be discussed in catagories - some down some up

Hard to think in %’s. I think the average $300m home today was thought to be worth $450m by the owners. So they are waiting, some renting, and others are waiting to be processed out (forclosed.) Over the next 3 years the value could go down to $225,000….Then, yes 5% per year increase after that (2012.) How does that sound – from my economic assessment company – I am neither Case nor Shiller. One thing we have learned – those out front pontificating are wrapped up in their own “mechanics” of thought and prejudices. There are still few bargains out there – and there have to be many more – Inventory (supply) of private sellers (many who are putting their properties on and off the market – to avoid “spoilage”) We haven’t even reached the kind of “Pain Point” required to call a bottom…a real bottom unaffected by artificial stimulus (like $8000 for first time buyers) We are now seeing “Absolute” auctions (no price retainage) We will be seeing more – lots more…. The Corporate Builders have yet to face their biggest nightmare (who wants to live in a gated community?) Originally thought to keep the “unfit to own” out of the community – now “it is thought by many” Gated communities are gatherings of refugees – no one wants to live with.
After, what will be a Xmas, of market dumping (from old merchandise packed deep in the warehouses we will see storefronts (strip malls, etc) fold up – Drive in to return a movie to Blockbuster and find the store is empty – commercial property – will be the next “Dong” in this “Ding Dong” fall apart – with another round of major layoffs – who will pay their mortgages, utilities, Taxes, etc… the local governmental economic environment facing a “spending” and collection disaster – RECOVERY? Did I say enough? We are in the eye of the storm – quiet, almost pleasant and reassuring – and the second “things didn’t line up” wave – The need to have everyone have a safety net in Healthcare is ABSOLUTELY necessary – because the healthcare system has to remain viable during “disastrous” times. Why are the markets in “Recovery?” Because everyone wants the “eye of the storm” to continue in peace. The Real Estate Industry’s selling techniques have not changed, The Automobile Dealers haven’t changed either. Credit availability is on Vacation….Earnings Season is the “hope” before the storm – which should continue after earnings season is over….The Republican Party and supporters are acting in “surety” to enhance this failure. It’s going to be a very cold winter!

Jackpot

paul

home farm

On the road

I read the posts here about "when" I'm too old to have all the technical data that many of you have mastered.

Look - it's simple for me - after the market closes on Tuesday, October 13, Intel will report earnings - and "Talk the Talk" - that will tell me more about where I'm going and the market is going than all the "Talking Heads, and hundreds of subscribed and free guru sites on the Web.

full disclosure:
a full up load of INTC calls January 2012 - deep in the money - runs penny for penny with the stock
Long Term Stock position in PWE Dividend yield 10.81% (stock price $11 in July $15 now)
Long Term CLWR various date calls, in the money
Long Term Calls PALM various dates deep in the money (held and rolled for two years)
Stock Position in UNG since early September - thanks to Tim - still holding.
Long-Term Calls GE deep in the money - not doing much + or -
If GE begins to break-up and keep their Core (which is not consumer, entertainment or financial)
strip that value out and something will happen - GE cannot go forward as a Dinosaur.

My trading account is waiting for the VIX to get off the toilet - closed below 27 today -

Verizon - unfortunately balks at correcting Mistake

Verizon and RIMM - Rush to Market a year ago with "The Storm" - they have tried to change the programs, etc - but the big problem still remains - probably Hardware - It is "low rated" everywhere by almost everyone. It is being dumped by Verizon at very cheap prices - and... and

RIMM is hurrying out an update - Too BAD for the folks who relied on the manufacturer and Verizon - we all signed 2 year contracts on good faith. At this time the following equipment is "new generation" and high rated - iPhone and the Palm Pre - the rest are 2nd rate. A new and faster Broadband is arriving in 4G - where ATT and Verizon are scurrying to match...but not ready, while there are more than 10 markets (cities) that have 4G w/Clear (who?) Oh, yes, backed by Intel, Google, Sprint and some other deep pockets.

Between my Storm and Broadband Card I am paying more than $150 - for services on October 3, 2009 (today) are last generation and outdated...

The Storm did not come out with planned obsolescence - it came out obsolete! Slow, Sure Type poor keyboard - lots of redundancy - inconsistent - screen providing what was not asked for - some freezes after their corrections - afterall all the updates most of the problems are still present - so they are coming out with a Storm 2 (why - hardware cannot be corrected with updates)

Verizon is stonewalling - and about to lose me after 15+ years.

These are times where we should not accept - profit squeezing at the customer's expense

Good Bye Southwest Airlines (Chase) credit card who watered down the benefits and held their fees - Now I have a Schwab Visa Card and get automatic deposit of 2% monthly for my use

Good Bye General Motors - who failed me in producing a quality $50,000 Diesel Truck

Good Bye Cabelas - who was equal to LLBean - and is now a schlock house

My Dentist - who was patronizing me for profit. The new dentist - is on the right track and as good or better - If you live near Cave Creek - I would on

Good Bye - PC - Microsoft cannot even upgrade XP to Win7 without having you buy Vista - Moving toward Apple Mac - late winter

More to come - Verizon is on the Good Bye Bench - along with 6 other companies I deal with.

Update:

After much correspondence and a phone call Verizon realizes that they are losing a 15 year $30,000 account (for 15 years) while I have a goodbye fee of $175 - It will be interesting to see how a big company loses a long-time customer over a cost to them of about $500 (3 months current bills.) Lets see how a giant company makes micro economic decisions - I also related that I would sign an agreement not to divulge any deal.

Pivot Point - Weather Changing

Arrived back in Boise - air travel over for awhile and back to "The Road" looking for direction. The Weather in Boise is turning from an average of 90 degrees to late fall temps of 50 to 60 and moisture returns.

Should make a change about October 15th - East, West or South?

Autumn in New York

In New York September 18 thru the 28th

Trading, etc. and Senator Boner (as in hardon) The New Mr. Evil

recent NR-7 alerts (act like coiled springs)

Symbol Time (NY) Message
WFR 09/18/09, 16:00:02 NR7
BCRX 09/18/09, 16:00:02 NR7
KOP 09/18/09, 16:00:02 NR7
KNDL 09/18/09, 16:00:02 NR7
ACTC 09/18/09, 16:00:02 NR7
HINKY 09/18/09, 16:00:02 NR7
HURN 09/18/09, 16:00:02 NR7
MMSI 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
NVDA 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
SPEC 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
GG 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
CBU 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
NOOF 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
GVI 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7-2
CEPH 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
TLVT 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
WTU 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
MXIM 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7-2
BIL 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
NMR 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
EM 09/18/09, 16:00:00 NR7
CVA 09/18/09, 16:00:01 NR7
OEH 09/18/09, 16:00:01 NR7
LLBO 09/18/09, 16:00:01 NR7
HOV 09/18/09, 16:00:01 NR7

From Trade Ideas

Definition of NR-7 (Trader Mike http://tradermike.net/2006/10/narrow_range_bars... )
Definition of Coiled Springs (Farley - http://www.hardrightedge.com/tour/spring.htm )

Everyone asks where do I get a list to start looking at what to look at - here is one and definitions of what you are looking at.

Oh? on a different subject - I am lucky to have a Public Option in my insurance. Medicare - plus all the gaps and options. I have never had such good coverage at a cost of insurance equal to 15 years ago in my business.
Oh? yes - Medicare is going broke - Bull $hit - it's a political term that the government uses when it borrows Social Security money collected and then has to pay it back without interest over many years - they don't like to pay back borrowed money to folks who will by dying soon - let them go before a death board and then let them die.

PS. 2nd only to Mr. Evil - Dick Cheney is Representative Boner (as in hardon) just look at him - EVIL!
From Peachin 67 years old

Planning 50th High School Reunion - Highland Park High School, Highland Park Illinois - 1960

1960 Class Pictures Graduation Highland Park High School

March 2009 - Dandelion Wine Store - Lily Peachin, Prop.

Brooklyn, New York - Weekly Friday Night wine tasting

http://www.dandelionwinenyc.com/

The Reunion Committee of 20 is planning a very big turnout

Next September (2010)

I am layering in hedge positions

everyday a few shares of ProShares ultra short RUT and Nas. I'll be adding thru Options Expiration Day (Friday) and will re access on Tuesday next.

On The Mark

I'm almost back for my fall season go-around Back to Boise from Seattle tonight - off to NYC in a week, for a week, back to Boise for a week or two - then on the road in mid-October maybe, and maybe a change in the markets after all the power of China, Europe and USA try to F'up the economies with protectionism. Tires and Chicken import curbs, etc.

I would say astrology aside, but Susan Miller at Astrologyzone is suggesting an across the board (all signs) facing some interesting economic changes between 9/15 and 9/23 - distill this down - in her discussion - we'll go in one way and come out another if we are flexible and willing to change with a change in circumstances...WTF

I'm heavy in Canadian Oil, Clearwire, XTXI, GE and Intel....staying that way - we'll see may have to start hedging - which requires "pick a point" accuracy and followup "worry"

Change is in the weather, the stars and in all the world economies - hope is not optimism - it is hope - a four letter word of sorts - it's a word that goes with "nothing left to lose" - "Cautious optimism" is a means nothing created in the media to say words diametrically opposed to each other.

So let's look toward good weather and feeling good - while we watch our acorn supply

The Fig - summer evening at the farm - end of Summer

Glossary:
The Fig is my daughter Lily
Howie is my Son Isaac
Rioja Man is Lily's Partner Adrian
Austin is my grandson, son of Isaac
and his partner Danielle Bias
Jackpot, Bonita and Chewie
are pets of the families.

"The Farm" - family farm in

Charlotteville, NY

The Mother of our Family

Gail Peachin (nee Platt)

divorced (now friends) 1987)

Taking time off until after Labor Day -

I believe the markets will be basing until after Labor Day September 7th. The basing either becomes a hard base or a hard resistence in the future. I believe we are in a Bull Market, within a Bear Market. The Bears are licking their wounds...the options markets and short positions on the put side are Dormant and the $VIX is at all time lows (Volitility Index)........I'll be back sometime after Labor day when the $VIX breakes through $30....otherwise scalping looses interest when more $$$ is required to make little gains......Labor Day always represented the (Real) New Year for me - Fall, School Started etc..............>

Love to see "The Glow" in Austin's eyes!

Hopefully moving to Mormon Bend, Campground

8 Miles North of Stanley, Idaho about 6,400+ feet - located on the Salmon River

My schedule thru Thanksgiving:

Stanley/Sun Valley, ID to Labor Day

Return to Boise - High Valley Campground

Fly to Seattle //September 10 to 14

Boise

Fly to New York September 21st to 28

Boise - load up and travel the Northwest

(Oregon, Washington) thru Thanksgiving....

Bonita's Pond at the Farm, Charlotteville, New York

Ex-Wife, Divorce Lawyer Killed As Model Train Careens Off Tracks

KOFSKY BASEMENT—In an accident that model train conductor Howard Kofsky called "a real goddamn shame," an 8-inch passenger car carrying his ex-wife Jillian Gilpin and her divorce attorney Pete Koechman careened off the tracks Monday after a miniature truss bridge suddenly and mysteriously went missing. "Jillian died on impact," the 44-year-old Kofsky said while standing over the wreckage in his boxer shorts. "That snake lawyer, though, he suffered a broken back, neck, legs, arms, face, fingers, and ribs, and was bleeding internally a lot. Also, he was burned alive after a giant lighter came down from the sky and set him on fire." According to basement sources, this is the eighth time that both Kofsky's ex-wife and her legal prosecutor have perished this month.

Microsoft about to Drive me off of PC's

Windows 7 is about to be released - so they say. You'll be able to upgrade from Vista but not from XP ( unless you obtain a vista program to upgrade twice)to Windows 7

What a perfect time to switch to an Apple Computer

Except and maybe, Windows will start to get feedback of the large numbers of XP people will be joining me. I will however stay with XP until it will not be updated. As for software upgrades supporting XP after 7 is released - well - we'll see.

I have been notified by my best security system - that the next 6 months will be free and then will be discontinued.....it is Microsoft's and probably the best web security system (Windows live One Care - allowing full security for up to 3 computers)

Microsoft announced that it will have some transfer programs - not for non-proprietary programs - but will do their files.....all non-Microsoft programs will have to be reloaded - and remember when XP came out how many programs would not transfer and I remember calling each company to get fixes - took 2 weeks +......not again for me.....I'll ride out XP until I can't and then I'll be getting a Mac - what an opportunity for Apple to dry clean the industry....!!!!

Canadian Oil - Riding on devalued $US and Oil controlled

This market is riding in a groove of high clear water between waves coming from both sides... Technical Analysis works when there is constant put and take of pressure which changes with Volume....this market is not reacting to the geometry of Technical Analysis - it has been a "full speed ahead" market - with early controls promising a change, a trap if you will, and then moves past Resistance like a wind picked up to push it over the line....yes the change in the $ value is part of the cause....the folks who feel that they didn't board the train before it left the station - and the pros who are playing "Bait and wait" for those who always pick the wrong time to get in. Not included in Technical Analysis is a greater influence....The Full Moon Coming which starts its "Draw" about 4 days before it becomes a force to deal with - "Change"

Those of you who missed courses in Economics relating to GNP and what influences GNP - inflation, etc. Government Spending (worldwide) takes a big seat at the table.......

Never Go to Wal-Mart - They treat their employees like shit - Huh? Prejudice?

Thank god for Wal-mart ($WMT) because they're employing tens of thousands of otherwise completely unemployable people. - Chairman MaoXian

Prejudice goes with Arrogance and Ignorance as the triple threat to sound thinking - OK

Then Wal-Mart has displaced small businesses around the country and has changed the small town feeling - Huh?

What about...Amazon, Target, Home Depot, Lowes, Costco, Yea....what about them?

What about "Evolution" in communities? Want to hate something awful? Hate Gated Communities - they have changed the land they are on forever!

The Clutter of Twitter, Facebook, MySpace, et al.

Internet Clutter. Facebook is an accumulation of friends, family and Businesses that you have a relationship - it is keeping you up on those people, most of which are chit-chatting and time consuming.

Twitter, is an accumulation site for a subscriber, where people keep up on the latest posts, of more than friends and family, but also others whose posts are important to you in your endeavors.

My Space is drowning - replicating the future advances of Yahoo.

I, personally, use Netvibes to accumulate on one page - all of my most important sites - which show from 2 to 7 of their last posts - I have had Netvibes for 2 years maybe, and is still the best source for me. I will retain Facebook and Twitter - but will declassify their presence via putting them on the bottom of my Netvibes home page - to be glanced at when I have nothing better to do.

The Web is consuming as the quality of information is being smothered by social bullshit.

As a trader in the markets, I read many posts by other traders following 20, 30, 40, 50 companies daily who have shown "something" that might cause them to change in their security price....all of this enormority is not only time consuming - it is too much for this 67 year old man to deal with. There is no better time to filter everything - to limit Focus - and cull the garbage.

I follow 3 to 5 securities at a time - and trade them, until one looses its volitility and then I bring on another one or two.

Current Positions - Economic Dallience

Long Term Calls

GE

INTC

Holdings

Penn West (canadian oil trust)
PALM

XTXI
YHOO

Money Markets (55%)

Market - reinforcement

Markets will dally around 9000 into Labor Day

Obama's plans are holding and working slowly

Obama Detractors speaking louder and convincing "the sheep" not working

Markets will test or make a retracement lower - for accumulation before advancing

Market potential - 10,000 vs 7500 by jan 2010

Oil - $75

Canadian Dollar - moving once again toward parity (Hence Canadian Oil Trust)

Walter Cronkite - Rest in Peace - 92

Spitzer, I'm a fan

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Switzerland Harboring 50,000 enemies of USA

We are negotiating with Switzerland to release Lists of American Citizens and Corporations that provide a "safe harbor" for untaxed dollars - USA criminals if you will. Swiss laws prevent Banks from revealing their depositors names.

I say, Invade Switzerland - gather up all these funds from all the countries in this world. Return the funds, in their entirety - to the countries of citizen origination - and make these citizens prove that the funds were legal and taxed by these countries - or - the funds would revert to that country. As for Switzerland - "Fuckem!!" Then, time to take the Swiss currently responsible, invade their funds - try them in international courts - and "away with them!"

As for the funds retrieved, the American citizens who are found to be harboring illegal funds and untaxed funds - They have a choice - Stay free in this country and allow the funds to be 100% taxed - or...take the tax and interest - and allow the criminals to spend some time in our prisons - rent free - for 10 to 25 years - to be negotiated...

I believe we would be going a long way in balancing the budget quickly with these funds.

On Vacation - Paddling the Payette River

All The News that's Fit To Print - Billy Mays Dead at 50!......BUT WAIT THERE'S MORE!!!

OK, Farrah Fawcett, Michael Jackson - but Billy Mays - yes one of the most notable voices on TV in the 21st Century - For Whatever - Our Society is Responsible for the Great Success of Billy Mays - as in the past "Set it and Forget it" was Ronco's Hall of Fame pitch until Billy Mays took the spotlight

"But wait! THERE’S NO MORE!!"

Billy Mays - A true American Icon - The only man who was tolerated in speaking in "ALL CAPS" - Rest in Peace

Obama has had everyone read this.........

Obama has had everyone read this, and you should too. It provides a very different angle on the problem. http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/06/01/090601fa_fact_gawande?yrail

- from John Mauldin

John Mauldin - one of my favorite Commentators

From John:

This Time is Different*

"I have often written that the four most dangerous words in the investment world are "This Time It's Different." If memory serves me, I have written several e-letters disparaging various personages who have uttered those very words, and gone one to confirm later that it wasn't different. It almost never is. And yet - and yet! - I am going to make the case over the next few weeks that it really is different this time, with only a lonely asterisk as a caveat. What prompts my probable foolishness to tempt the investing gods is the rather large amount of bad analysis based on unreasonable (dare I say lazy or surface?) readings of statistics that is coming from the mainstream investment media and investment types with their built-in bias for bullish analysis. Normally, gentle reader, your humble analyst is a paragon of moderate sensibilities, but I have been pushed over a mental edge and need to restore balance. I anticipate that this topic will take several weeks, as trying to cover it all in one sitting would exhaust us both. It should be fun....we are on a track that looks far more like the Great Depression than the recessions of our lifetimes. To expect a normal recovery cycle, whether it is corporate profits or lending or consumer spending or capital investment or (pick a category) is just not reasonable. This is a period that is fundamentally, in so many ways, different. And the recovery (and there will be one!) will also be of a different warp and woof throughout the entire world economy...The asterisk on "This Time It's Different*"? Human nature hasn't changed. We are still driven by fear and greed. The business cycle has not been repealed. Free-market capitalism will get us back (with a few new rules of engagement). What's different will be the nature of this recovery. All the other eternal truths will remain."

From Me:

Finally, the phrase - "Too Big To Fail" yes our economy is too big to fail - and the requirement to restore growth is to eliminate the "waste:" unnecessary spending, using of credit, greed, planning and spending without really planning, Etc. ALSO - the speed of time in our lives and conditions cannot allow "the lapse of Recession/Depression" to happen - it is mathmatical and probable that this recovery will be called a Miracle - the government is doing the right thing by throwing money at everything (it's what we do - buy a problem away - it has worked every time and it will work now) What about the future cost. We live for now - the future will take care of itself - as it has in the past.

Holden Caulfield would be 76 years old this year

J.D Salinger (The Recluse,) 90 years old, is living in a Hospital as someone is publishing a follow-up - to capitalize on the Classic Novel - blocked in Court from being published and sold............

From a trader suffering with Dementia

Update on the market from an insecure trader.  My current thinking is relying on 9000 on the Dow to be a "Basing Point" (place to stop and ponder) building pressure before making a decision - maybe even beginning a "Coiled Spring"

 (see Farley for def.:http://www.hardrightedge.com/tour/spring.htm.)

T2108 is showing a 90 number which is displaying an immediate turn-around is due. But we know it can stay above 80 for more that one would think.  It is also showing a MACD which is just crossing into positive territory (a conflict to the previous statement.) Also, the RSI has recently crossed above 50 (another conflict to the first statement.)

The Markets are making "good news" out of minimally positive news and the VIX is below the magical 30 (at 29.84) working on a daily charting channel where the support is at about 27 - 28.

Finally, when all fails I look at the Moon

Sunday is a full Moon - representing Change

The Fig!

The Economy - Boise, Idaho - Point of View

(Since no one really reads all this stuff - let me say that the Stock Market is rising to 9,000 and then will hold and eventually pull back (to as much as 7500) after the buyers lose their patience for recovery and the weary hype that will drown in itself.  Oil is increasing for the "wishing price" by the producers and sellers - it too may hit 75 but will eventually reduce itself to the low 50's. Real Estate like a bad batch of Muffins - has squatted to rise and will once again get "cooked in the squat.")

In any event - President Obama and his team will be winning world records in handling the problem that was mostly created by the Bush Administration - and holdover bad economic situations that had been created since the 1970's (when the unions crippled the auto industry - a two month industry Union Strike, that gave them the Power! The Seed was planted in the 1970's and I have no sympathy for the millions of workers who chewed on the fat until the plants closed - they were overpaid  since the mid 1970's had the best unemployment, best retirement plans and best medical insurance - Wow!  Can you imagine they are very disturbed that the ship sunk!)  I feel very sorry for all the auto people - but it was an obvious result.

Boise Idaho population about 225,000. Capital of Idaho.  College town: 10% of total population is represented by Students and Faculty.  Largest Employer: Micron Technology 10,000.

Boise is a well known entry to the surrounding Mountain Area in Fishing, Rafting, etc. Hunting, skiing, and other Mountain Recreation sports - winter and summer. 

Real Estate - The current dilemma: At June 1st 2009, There are a record number of unsold homes and previously owned homes for sale.  Rental rates are sinking 30% - as a confluence of ordinary rentals and Homes for sale/ turned into rentals are sinking the market.  There appears to be no recovery in Real Estate "for sale" and now "for rent" in sight.*

Employment - Unemployment in the last 12 months has gone up from 4.5 to 8.6% of total employment.

No current Recovery in sight.

*people are moving out of houses they can't afford - failing to sell the house, they are trying to rent the house while for sale - so the rent will pay the mortgage, insurance and taxes - which of course the rent will not do.  Then they are renting something cheaper...so they are paying rent on where they moved, plus all or some of the costs of the house they cannot Afford, Sell or Rent.

....I guess I would call this....Getting in Deeper

On a Macro Level (USA)

What Hasn't Changed (at all)?

The employment problem

The Real Estate problem

Transition of Failed Economics

Employment

Real Estate

Government Costs

What Has Changed?

A better smarter Administration

The Beginning of Transition of Failed Businesses

Automobile Industries

Banks and Financial Institutions

The price of Oil and Gas 

States, Cities and Towns - regrouping

Republican Party looks permanently paralysed

The general population has begun saving

spending less

using less credit/increase in Debit Cards

Borrowing less

What looks like progress but isn't

lower interest rates (no one is borrowing - Banks are hoarding)

Inflation - higher food prices - Oil rising without reason

Regrouping the Auto Industry - change will require 6 to 18 months

Regrouping the Financial Industry - the crooks are just looking for another twist

Just as an example - look at the weekend ads for Automobiles and Real Estate the Sellers have not changed how they were misleading consumers - It would be interesting to review 10 automobile sales - the same car, same dealer and see the differences in the prices - type of buyer (women, minorities, weak men)

Yesterday, you could reserve a quality room in a hotel, resort and it would be interesting to see the different rates paid by similar people - one example is $110 to $375 per nite/same room/same season/days of week/etc.... The Hotel Industry needs to be severely punished by the economy and the consumer - the consumer should take no prisoners

Building list on next downturn of the Markets

Without any knowledge of the markets, the likely of making mistakes, a history of making big mistakes - an arrogance masking ignorance....I am anticipating the markets working their way up to 9,000 -

I posted this 2 months ago (March 23rd):

"My knowledge of the markets is limited and dangerous, having said that, My first impression of what is happening:

1. An enormous amount of $ is going to enter our Economy - This will Cause:

A. Inflation

B. The price of oil and comodities will begin to rise faster than other things.

C. The markets will stay at this level or increase to 9,000 - Next 3 mos.

D. The $ will fall against the other currencies of the world unless they fall too!

Republican "Senator Boner" will make lots of noise signifying nothing - he will eventually go limp."

So from 2+ months ago, we are getting close to 9,000. AFTER THAT I believe we will get at least a 1500 point downward adjustment - and then the markets will spend the remainder of the summer struggling in the range 7,500 to 9,000. Post labor day movements are anybody's guess. (Surprises? After all the restructuring of the Auto Industries - "Survivor Sales" will continue. Retail Food markets (divided by the likes of Winco and WalMart on one level, and the name brand retailers (Albertsons,etc.) will suffer a reality - Esp. the Brand Retailers.
The housing market is in it "pronounced" 4th round of recovery, without recovery in sight - will cause concern - a slower than anyone expected recovery. in the "Fool me Once, shame on you - Fool me Twice Shame on me" category - employment will begin to selectively get better - except people will start paying down more debt (a form of savings) and will begin real "Hoarding" another form of savings.)

During the time in a lower range I will be purchasing 2011 Call options in the following companies and ETF's

Cisco Systems
MMM
INTC
DOW
DD
Natural Gas

I currently hold long-term a large # of shares in PWE
I have a 20% hedge position in PWE "Puts"
I will be increasing this position hedge position to 50%
PWE is both an oil play a fairly large dividend play

I currently hold long term calls in GE, INTC and some gambling positions in XTXI (stock) and Clearwire (Call options)

PS. Yesterday, I heard an interview by Larry Kudlow with former Vice President Cheney - Dead Men Talking!

Jackpot! ..... a 6mos old tall Border Collie

Spring - nothing like it! ...The "Fig" and "RiojaMan"

Duality - a conflict?

"You only have to be right Once!"

From Trader-X

Mark Cuban on Success and Motivation

I am not a fan of Mark Cuban a lot of the time, but I respect his business acumen and success. 

Over on his blog he made multiple posts on "Success and Motivation", and they are well worth reading. Not just for the Michael Dell and Bill Gates stories, but for a look at how he built his business with and from nothing and for valuable insights that can be applied to whatever you undertake in life. 

As he says, "you only have to be right once."

Grab a beer, sit down and relax, and give it a read.

on another note William "Bill" Siedman - Rest in Peace - CPA "Honest Broker" past FDIC Chmn

Mr. Seidman was born April, 29, 1921, in Grand Rapids, Mich. He received his undergraduate degree from Dartmouth College, his LLB from Harvard University and his MBA from the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business. From 1985 to 1991, Mr. Seidman served as the fourteenth chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Under President George H.W. Bush, Seidman was tapped to head up the newly created federal agency called the Resolution Trust Corp. (RTC), which landed the mammoth task of cleaning up the S&L mess

Darkness Revisited

In the past 7 years I have become a student of How thoughts of suicide become a reality - a no turn away tragedy (for the living, yes and even the victim.)  It becomes a ratchet with one-way barbs that keep getting tighter in a one direction - "Darkness Visible" the title of William Styron's book of his voyage (a mere 89 pages.)  

From a friend talking about someone who was into dancing "in their group" who followed dance floors around Bakersfield, California:

"I made it to they gym,.... started a painting... and got photos organized for a DVD presentation for my friend's Memorial. It was sure fun looking at all of the things he was so good at...diving, circus acts, high-diving, skiing, ski patrol, skydiving formation, hiking, dancing, singing telegrams and stripping, teaching music, 6 different instruments, musical instrument repair (learned from his father), herpetology, sign language, snakes.

 

He treated each person like they were special, insisted on opening the girl's door, dressed nice always, . He always improved his dance technique, but he was still more about the fun. If you messed up, he made light of it, or humorously made an issue of it and went on. He made it his business that if there were not enough guys to lead, he made sure all the girls got their turn dancing. He just made everything fun for everybody by his own enthusiasm for the activity. He was all about women, but never inappropriate. Women loved him....but he was a guy's guy too. Then he met and married a woman that was just as outgoing as he was...so much for that now.... His wife IS a character. Very funny - she will keep you laughing."

On the day of his choice he selected and failed at 3 ways to commit suicide and finally  - he succeeded.  RIP

desperate, destructive, determined - the intensity of his will must have had him moving at light speed - amazingly unstable, shaking - mentally distraught - such self punishment!  Is there a Hell?  Yes, but it is here on earth for some - How do you intervene when you have been eliminated mentally by the victim...that is what intervention is - it begins with reading William Styron's book - "Darkness Visible" so one can understand what is happening.   Intervention means stepping in to an unwelcome situation and being steadfast!

personally, I thank my children, their mother, and a good friend (who gave me the book)  for being there.

This Picture represents my current problem - 24/7

I live by a primary motto created by Charlie Brown

"I like to have everything so good I can take it for granted"

In this picture the Keystone represents my head and the adjacent two rocks represent my right and left shoulder. The connection of my right (picture left) shoulder and my head is and has been a source of cronic pain (24/7 if you will) Several Weeks ago I visited a Chiropractor for the first time in my life. To No avail and much frustration. I am now communicating with a ZEN Mistress who is "over the top" with suggestions of Accupuncture, and other assorted natural remedies including lots of massage, etc. I am currently using "Dirty Drugs" Advil, Advil Combos, and some minor acceptables like "Heat" Arnica, etc. No one has suggested Extra Crunchy Natural Peanut butter with Mostly fruit natural preserves on heavy dark multi seeded bread. No one has suggest "Break the Sheet Rock" aggressive sexual Contact. The Pain is about to force me to give in to Zen Natural Ravi Shenkar ultimate needle stimulation...Oh my God(!) Charlie Brown - What's a mortal to do?

রবি শংকর*

*a Hindu, almost always a Brahmin, who has memorized a substantial portion of the Vedas, along with the corresponding rhythms and melodies for chanting or singing them.

Although ZEN is mostly Budhist in nature - the Hindu squeeze in their interpretation...like any Hindu would, including Charlie Brown. Further more, Charlie Brown has communicated his answer to me in the words of .... Seng-t’san (d.606)

"Pursue not the outer entanglements; dwell not in the inner void, Be serene in the oneness of things and dualism vanishes by itself"

I live by the Mantra: "Pain vanishes by itself"

PS. The accuracy and relavency of the facts in this post are at the leasure of the writer and cannot be challenged as fact - consider fantasy - facing factual frustration.

Update Jun 26th - it has been a month since my first Acupuncture treatment. After the 2nd Treatment - all the pain is gone - it's a miracle. After some strenuous activities - it's still gone! The proceedure was provided by a most beautiful woman - Jean Kuty, Boise, Idaho.

The Dude Abides - Attitude - the color of life

Are The Good Times Really Over - Oh "Merlie?" - The good times are just beginning, heavens to mercy! - Let The Good Times Role!

Let us Pray....Then we can all lay down and die

Fortunately, he met Bob Dylan in time - and began to sing with Willie Nelson The Okie from Muskogie was saved - not born again - just came alive - like risen from the dead!

PS. For those of you who are religiously inflicted, let me say that "Science" will tell you that you are only born once - no 2nd chances no matter who says so!

Matthew Higgins - Rest In Peace

In Matt's lifetime, I was but a brief stranger who happened to meet him while he was Dealing with his Life's greatest Moment. You are a tight and impressive family, each in your own ways bringing love and Charm to the table.  Thank you for letting me enjoy being with you in Arizona and for introducing me to Matt.

I have a very favorite Poem that expresses, better, my wishes for both you and Matt - 

Beannacht (”Blessing”) by John O’Donohue

On the day when
the weight deadens
on your shoulders
and you stumble,
may the clay dance
to balance you.

And when your eyes
freeze behind
the grey window
and the ghost of loss
gets in to you,
may a flock of colours,
indigo, red, green,
and azure blue
come to awaken in you
a meadow of delight.

When the canvas frays
in the currach of thought
and a stain of ocean
blackens beneath you,
may there come across the waters
a path of yellow moonlight
to bring you safely home.

May the nourishment of the earth be yours,
may the clarity of light be yours,
may the fluency of the ocean be yours,
may the protection of the ancestors be yours.

And so... may a slow wind.....
work... these words of love around you, 
an invisible cloak to mind your life.

I know that Matt will Live in everything you think about and do for years to come - and for that Matt Lives!

For me, he was a kind and gentle man...still looking for what life had to offer - in these trying times

Paul

For those of you who have the patience to read some thoughts of this spring:

My fellow right-wingers, calm down. The new president is not the 
antichrist, Stalin or even a radical.

By David Horowitz
April 2, 2009

I have been watching an interesting phenomenon on the right, which isbeginning to cause me concern. I am referring to the over-the-top hysteria in response to the first months in office of our new president, which distinctly reminds me of the "Bush is Hitler" crowd on the left.

Speaking of this crowd, have you seen any "I am so sorry" postings from that quarter as Obama continues and even escalates the former president's war policy in Afghanistan and attempts to consolidate his military occupation of Iraq?

Conservatives, please. Let's not duplicate the manias of the left as we figure out how to deal with Mr. Obama. He is not exactly the antichrist, although a disturbing number of people on the right are convinced he is.

I have recently received commentaries that claim that "Obama's speeches are unlike any political speech we have heard in American 
history" and "never has a politician in this land had such a quasi-religious impact on so many people" and "Obama is a narcissist," which leads the author to then compare Obama to David Koresh, Charles Manson, Stalin and Saddam Hussein. Excuse me while I blow my nose.

This fellow has failed to notice that all politicians are narcissists and that a recent American president was a world-class exponent of 
the imperial me. So what? Political egos are one of the reasons the Founders put checks and balances on executive power. As for serial lying, is there a politician that cannot be accused of that? And a pretty high bar in this category, and we survived it. As for Obama's speeches, they are hardly in the Huey Long, Louis Farrakhan, Fidel Castro vein. They are in fact eloquently and cleverly centrist and sober.

So what's the panic? It is true that Obama has shown surprising ineptitude in his first months in office, but he's not a zero with no 
accomplishments as many conservatives seem to think -- unless you regard beating the Clinton machine and winning the presidency as nothing. But in doing this you fall into the "Bush-is-an-idiot" bag of liberal miasmas.

It is also true Obama has ceded his domestic economic agenda to the House Democrats and spent a lot of money in the process. But what's the surprise in this? After all, Bush and McCain both proposed (and in Bush's case pushed through) massive government giveaways (which 
amount to government takeovers as well). This is bad, but it doesn't make Obama a closet Mussolini, however deplorable the conservatives among us may regard it. Moreover, he's already run into political resistance even within his own party. Charlie Rangel has made it clear that the itemized deduction tax hike is not going through his committee -- and that should tell you that the American system, the 
one the Founders created, is still in place.

Even as astute a conservative thinker as Mark Steyn has been swept up in the tide that thinks Obama is a "transformative" radical. But look again at his approach to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. In both cases, as noted, he is carrying out the Bush policies -- the same 
that he once joined his fellow Democrats in condemning. And that should be reassuring to anyone concerned about where he is heading as commander in chief.

In other words, while it's reasonable to be unhappy with a Democratic administration and even concerned because the Democrats are now a socialist party in the European sense, we are not witnessing the coming of the antichrist. A good strategy for political conflicts is to understand your opponent first -- not to underestimate him, but not to overestimate him either.

Once conservatives do that, they will find some silver linings in the first moves of the Obama administration. Through a combination of ineptitude and zeal, Obama has in two short months locked down the conservative and Republican base. On fetal stem-cell research, on borders (e-verification), on spending, on unions, on shutting down talk radio, Obama has flexed the leftist muscle so nakedly and unmistakably that there isn't a conservative left who will vote 
Democratic in the next election (and there were many who did so in the last).

As we move forward, Obama faces increasingly tough choices in the 
wars against Islamic fascism in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Gaza and Iran. Hopefully, he will make the right choices, and should he do so conservatives will need to be there to support him. If he makes the wrong choices, conservatives will need to be there to oppose him. But neither our support nor our opposition should be based on hysterical 
responses to policies that we just don't like. Let's leave that kind of behavior to the liberals who invented it.
--

Some Odds and Ends today - Spring 2009

In the woods where many rivers run among the unbent hills

and Fields of our Childhood - where ricks and rainbows mix

in memory although our "fields" were streets

I see again those myriad mornings rise

when every living thing casts its shadow in eternity

and all day long the light like early morning

with its sharp shadows shadowing

a paradise that I had hardly dreamed of

nor hardly knew to think of this unshaved today 

with its derisive rooks that rise above dry trees

and caw and cry and question every other

spring and thing - Lawrence Ferlinghetti

from across the pond:

Procol Harum's A Whiter Shade of Pale is the most played song in 
public places in the past 75 years, according to a chart compiled for 
BBC Radio 2.

The song, with its distinctive organ riff, stayed at number one for 
six weeks in the UK in the summer of 1967.

Queen's Bohemian Rhapsody was at number two followed by All I Have To Do Is Dream by the Everly Brothers. There was no place in the top 10 for The Beatles.

Suicide Redux from December 23, 2008

I wrote this last December after the reaction by some to the Bernard Madoff Scandal.  Since Last December there have been many Suicides - by Unemportant people - who don't count - until the Latest "Big Guy" at the freddiemac, fannymae lending consortium.  He was 41 - a financial superstar.....good bye!

If you have a friend, who is in a deep state of Depression, for your knowledge - a must rea is a small book (84 pages) a self account of a great writer, William Styron "Darkness Visible" - and after you have read it - give it to your friend to read - as someone did for me.

Suicide Watch - Dead Men Walking as I write.

Suicide is condemning yourself to death. First you visit "Hell on Earth" - the real and only hell - then you see that every turn available is unacceptable. Anxiety reaches astronomical levels, Searching for the way - out of this hell. You eliminate social contact around your life, including intimates - they cannot help, only interfere - It's a private matter of the utmost, and can only be experienced by one. There are many ways to commit suicide - the internet has thorough discussions, mostly by people who have failed. It behooves everyone to learn the best method for themselves - and then to fine tune the procedure - so that success is guaranteed. How to Point the Gun, what pills to take, the importance of the plastic bag and rubberband - unless of course you're going to jump or drown yourself (messy.) There is a point in anyone's life (anyone!) that suicide becomes a thought, moved up to an option, moved up to a plan and "Execution." It is...the perfect crime!

A Full Moon doesn't necessarily bring out the Best in US - Yet I miss these days - “Let ‘er buck!”

Full Moon - lots of pressure - Big Change Coming

Full Moon - April 9 - Thursday

Some Days You're the Dog and others the Mule

On The Road - Kernville, California in the Sierra + RIMM

As I strive to keep myself in the weather temperature range of 75 Degree Days and 40 Degree nights - I have arrived in Kernville, California - to the surprise of Research in Motion's (Blackberry) earnings that jacked up the price (+25%) - My Major "Call Holding" for the past month which is the amount of time I have been using the Blackberry Storm.  Assuming I do not do anything foolish - I have accumulated (in this gain) enough funds to make my next 6 months of living - "on the house" during these troubled times - although I was equipped to manage the costs - in any event.  This is a beautiful Town - beautiful Area - Classic Lake/River town in the Sierra Mountain Range.  The Temperature at arrival was 75 degrees and early this morning (5am) 40 Degrees( Elevation about 3,000ft)... So....all the "Bells" lined up on the slot machine. - More to come, Words, Pictures, gains and losses.

PS. For those of you who are Fibonacci Devotees, The RIMM price this morning hit the "high line" of Feb 09/09 at $60 and retracted slightly - I'm drawing an "inside Fib" between the top two lines and will close if no support at the 50% of the "inside lines."  Addendum: Needed to go out and play closed call position when price was 58.80 - stock was basing - so the remainder of todays action will not happen until maybe 2:30 - bird in the hand....

"Looking at large positive gap openings for RIMM regardless of the catalyst (earnings, news, etc) shows a similar trend to its typical pattern on positive earnings report days.  Today's gap opening (+25%) is likely to be the second strongest in the stock's history, and the eighth positive gap of more than 15%.  Following the prior seven 15%+ gaps, RIMM has averaged a gain of 4.9% from the open to close with positive returns 71% of the time."

-Bespoke (http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/04/rimm-up-on-earnings.html)

Lake Isabella, adjacent to the Kern River

Rock Climbers going acquatic 

What's wrong with Texas - This just defines Texas

http://www.npr.org/templates/player/mediaPlayer.html?action=1&t=1&islist=false&id=102453061&m=102468782

Bob Perry - Mr. Swift Boat controversy, and major Houston Residential Home Contractor - an equal to George W Bush in committing crimes in the open - and walking away - "Texas Free!"

Obama TELLS Auto Industry and directs Change

Rick Wagner has agreed to relinquish the posts at the request of the White House.

The chairman and chief executive of General Motors is to resign with immediate effect as the US Goverment prepares another multi-billion dollar bailout plan for the company.

GM has also announced a major shake-up of its board of directors.

The changes come just hours before President Barack Obama plans to unveil additional bailout for GM and its competitor Chrysler, which have already received more than $17bn in government loans.

John Boner (R) House Minority Leader - will bring the House (Republicans) down. - A Prediction!

PS. The impatience of the American Public, the faith that someone else will correct the problem and the finger pointing by the folks who caused the damage to our Economy is a lesson to be learned. A full blown realization of the "State of the Union" should surface somewhere around July 4th - Independence Day (end of the 2nd Quarter.) This current, but temporary, relief phase (yes, it's almost over) actually marks the beginning of the 2nd act of a 5 act Tragedy.

Living on the Road Without Design 75 - 40

I plan on moving to other locations based for my preference to see places I have read about but not visited.  Encouraging my current interests, visiting my family and keeping the weather perameters between 75 Degree Days and 40 degree nights - Maximum Sunlight and low humidity.

I am just finishing up my winter in Arizona where the temperature ranges, etc have fulfilled my needs.  As I review my next stay, Kernville, California ("A") - I see the temperature range has moved to the desired 75/45 range, excellent sunlight and Whitewater to keep learning the basics of Whitewater Kayaking.  The Snow melt of the Sierra Mountains is just beginning and the waters are rising in the river.  As the Temperature increases increases into the 80's I'll be moving on to Idaho where the Snow melt will be just beginning above Boise, Id. I have never visited Kernville in the past, although last year I spent some time on the east side of the Sierra and knew I would return.

My next stop is the Payette River in Horseshoe Bend, Idaho (North of Boise)("B")  - continuing Whitewater rafting instruction as the temperature enters my range in May. From Horseshoe Bend - I have an unfulfilled break (Month of June) for about 3 to 4 weeks before I go to the Sun Valley/Stanley Idaho area (Salmon River) about July 1st.
View Larger Map

The entire trip north
View Larger Map

A Lake Pleasant, Peoria, AZ

B. Kernville, California (Kern River) April 1 to 1st week of May

C. Horseshoe Bend, Idaho (Payette River) May 6 to 1st week of June

Free time - 1st week of June thru july 4th

D. Sun Valley, Idaho (Salmon River) July 4th thru Labor Day

The market goes up $500 on Trillion $ Announcement - Cactus Flowers Bloom!

"I love the smell of Toxic Assets in the Morning"  - Trader Mike

My knowledge of the markets is limited and dangerous, having said that, My first impression of what is happening:

1. An enormous amount of $ is going to enter our Economy - This will Cause:

A. Inflation

B. The price of oil and comodities will begin to rise faster than other things.

C. The markets will stay at this level or increase to 9,000 - Next 3 mos.

D. The $ will fall against the other currencies of the world unless they fall too!

Republican Senator Boner will make lots of noise signifying nothing - he will eventually go limp.

Life goes one - what a wonderful start to spring - nice weather here in AZ and looks good in CA

After an abnormal amount of heavy rain in the desert this winter the desert is enjoying a magnificent Bloom - Cactus Flowers!

Barack Obama (The President!*) w/ Jay Leno

*A Real President - A Real Person - No BullShit!

Sometimes the guy who "thinks with his "dick" is the smartest man in the room!

The ex-New York Gov. says that while the cash being given to executives of the bailed out insurer are maddening, the real concern should be the funds going to counterparties.

"Virtually all" of the $80 billion-plus in the initial AIG bailout went to the company's counterparties, including nearly $13 billion to investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) alone, Spitzer said.

"Why did that happen? What questions were asked? Why did we need to pay 100 cents on the dollar on those transactions if we had to pay anything?" he asked. "What would have happened to the financial system had it not been paid? These are the questions that should be pursued," he said.

Bonita - Mistress of Dandelion Wine

"Dandy Lion" Wine Shoppe

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

CNBC Gives Financial Advice

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things With Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Joke of the Day

“Americans, Churchill once remarked, will always do the right thing - after they have exhausted all the other alternatives. But if we are still waiting for Keynes to save us when Davos comes around next year, it may well be too late. Only a Great Restructuring can end the Great Repression. It needs to happen soon.” - from The Big Picture - Barry Ritholtz

5 Rules for Life - a daily event - This is my favorite

Here are Sandip's "Five Rules For Life" (for this moment):

1.) Move your boundaries.
Every day life's greatest ideas are developed through evolution, just the way nature intended. Quantum leaps are hard and not needed. The only boundary that is unbreakable is "God". By "God" I don't mean religious; far from it - my "God" resides in my inner balance, my conscience, and as my guiding light (the one that tells me what is innately right and what is wrong; there are no shades of grey). It does not require me to go to a place of worship, it requires me to listen to myself...which leads to my second rule.

2.) Enjoy solitude.
There is beauty in solitude; remember the sayings "silence is golden" and it is "better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt"? Whether it means shutting off the TV or "listening to the silence", you need to start.

3.) Embrace pain.
When you are afraid of failing, or of pain, or of the unknown...you will get nothing done in life (be it love, friendship, family, or work). There is beauty in pain and suffering; beautiful profound things can be born out of pain and endurance. This is an extension of never giving up and learning constantly.

4.) Seek balance.
"Yin and Yang" is so much more than culturally trendy words. It's an attitude of the mind and heart together. Man & Woman. Plus & Minus. Black & White. Day & Night. Love & Hate. Take everything in balance and moderation. Don't be a doormat, but don't be an ass. Be kind but don't be patronizing. Be helpful but not to those that abuse your help. Meaningful, profound things in life are NOT the flashy, trendy distractions; they are hidden, covered over, and need time and care to nurture and bring forth. 



5.) Question [almost] everything.
Question authority, rules, and society...but never question values; values never change. Honesty and integrity were the same 1,000 years ago as today, and will be the same 1,000 years from now. Our tools change but humanity doesn't.

Sandip currently resides in Calgary, Canada.

http://fiverulesforlife.blogspot.com

DEPRESSION

We have entered a turn of the Century Depression.  It is layering in like lava from as volcano - those nearest are hit first - sooner or later...it covers the land.  Why is it not recognized in public by the media, public officials, etc. etc?  Delivery of bad news - kills the messenger. Sometime in July, after the 2nd Quarter, A confirmation of Recession will either be stated or, there will be an economic U-turn.  

The Current Recession began 9 months prior it being recognized "Officially."

UPDATE: Monday Morning - It's on the table - Much bigger Problems at AIG and Warren Buffett says Economy is in Shambles thru 2009 (translation  = Depression)

pre-market DJI less than 7000 - should pass by 6800 maybe even 6500 to base of 6,000

Paul Harvey - Rest in Peace

I spent a part of my professional life speaking before audiences. Public Speaking is an art.  Before I continue - I'm talking about talented speakers, not their prejudices, politics, religion, etc.  

Paul Harvey was an excellent speaker.  He knew how to deliver a story and a statement - He kept his audiences attention - and always brought them back for more. Other notable speakers include TV Evangelist Jimmy Swaggert ( Dan Rather once said of him - "One of the Best!") Ted Koppel, formerly of ABC, currently a NPR commentator. President Obama, President of the United States is a formidable speaker - 

Recognizing a good speaker is easy - you understand what they have said, they kept your interest - and the meaning is without question, 

It's pretty simple...Subject Matter, Delivery, confidence,  simplicity.

Happy Valentine's Day!

The following is the beginning of my list of (to be developed) Core Holdings:

Intel
Berkshire Hathaway
IBM
GE
Amgen
Google
OIL
Natural Gas
Copper
Amazon
FedEx
UPS
3M
Dow Chemical

My only concern is whether to start accumulating when the Dow 30 falls to 7500 or 6000 (update 2-18-09) we were very close to 7500 yesterday, which is a double bottom to the previous low in Nov 22, 08. A natural resistence, however, other non-market issues are far from predicting a "blood bath" low - so, breaking 7000 looks bright and maybe a 6800 low - need lots of Volume and blood on the streets -
and "good news" for a pull out.)

I currently have call options on GE, INTC and DOW and positions in PWE (Oil) XTXI (gas transmission) These positions represent 25% of my LqNW (liquid net worth) the remainder is in Money Markets.

Congress - One of the most powerful - considered the most responsible for our current economic condition - Phil Gramm - never trust this kind of smile

As chairman of the Senate Banking Committee from 1995 through 2000, Gramm was Washington's outspoken champion of deregulation. And he got it, by playing a lead role in the writing and passage of the 1999 repeal of the Depression-era Glass-Steagall Act, which had separated commercial banks from Wall Street. Then he inserted a provision into the 2000 Commodity Futures Modernization Act that exempted derivatives like credit-default swaps from regulation.

he was financed by the 8 largest Investment banker's lobbyists - Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, etc....... - Time Magazine

Five Rules for Life - Published Daily - Start the day

The Featured "Five Rules" of the Week is selected by the editor, possibly with input from random strangers. The criteria is simple - I [we] liked it.

This week's featured submitter is Brian Johnson. Brian is a marketing consultant and professional speaker; he has presented to crowds that number in the thousands, but he is most proud of being a husband and father of two beautiful daughters.

1.) Challenge yourself.
Set goals that make you s-t-r-e-t-c-h. It is a cop-out to make things too easy - always take it to the next level and don't be afraid to fail. I would rather fail trying to do something that made me expand my abilities and work harder than I ever thought I could rather than succeed at doing something I knew I could accomplish with my eyes closed.

2.) Make yourself a brand.
Sit down and decide what you want to be, and what you want people to associate with you. Map it out and then work hard to make it a reality. When people think of me they think of three things: someone that helps organizations with their image and messaging; a captivating and entertaining speaker; a loving husband and father. That is my brand. Who are you?

3.) Realize that happiness isn't something you "obtain".
The sooner you realize that happiness is not something you obtain like a piece of furniture or a job, the more likely you are to achieve it. Most people think they will be happy if they get a promotion, make a sale, start a relationship with someone, or buy a certain kind of car. But happiness is created, not acquired. Have you ever wondered why - as a general rule - people with less are happier than people with more?

4.) Live responsibly.
This has many meanings to me - but basically it means don't ignore injustices, treat others with respect, do what is right for the world and environment, and quit thinking it is "someone else's" job.

5.) Get a dog.
A dog loves you unconditionally. A dog thinks you are the greatest, coolest, smartest, most successful person in the world. Get a dog and work hard to live up to its expectations.



Brian currently resides in New York City.

Taken from a website that provides, daily, some peoples rules

http://fiverulesforlife.blogspot.com/ http

Peanut Butter, Peanuts, Peanuts in everything

Pointer over Company or product will bring you to the details of the product

Peanut Corporation of America Expands Nationwide Recall of Peanut Products (January 28) New!

• Isagenix Announces Voluntary Recall of Chocolate Dipped Honey Peanut IsaLean® Bar Due to Possible Peanut Corporation of America (PCA) Contamination and Potential Health Risk (January 27) New!
  
• Jenny Craig Announces Nationwide Voluntary Recall of Jenny’s Cuisine® Anytime Peanut Butter Flavor Nutritional Bars Due to Possible Peanut Corporation of America (PCA) Contamination and Potential Health Risk (January 27) New!
  
• Salix Voluntarily Recalls Dog Treat Due to Possible Health Risk (January 23)
• Carolina Prime Pet Announces Nationwide Recall of Dog Treats (January 27)
• ALDI Statement Regarding Peanut Butter Products Recall (January 23)
• Creative Energy Foods, Inc. Recalls Nutrition Bars Due To Possible Health Risk (January 21)
• SOPAKCO, Inc. Announces a Nationwide Recall of Certain SURE-PAK 12 Meals Containing Peanut Butter Products (January 27)
• Falcon Trading Company/SunRidge Farms Withdraws Naturally Preferred Honey Nut Nuggets (January 23)
• Falcon Trading Company/SunRidge Farms Withdraws Certain Lots of SunRidge Tropical Golden Nugget, SunRidge Chocolate Energy Bar and SunRidge Energy Nuggets (January 23)
• Trader Joe’s Expands Its Voluntary Recall To Include Trader Joe’s Sliced Green Apples With All Natural Peanut Butter (January 23)
• Supreme Protein Voluntarily Recalls Supreme Protein® brand Peanut Butter Crunch Bars and Caramel Nut Bars (January 23)
• Voluntary Recall Issued for ShopRite Peanut Butter on Toasty Crackers and ShopRite Peanut Butter and Cheese Cracker Snacks Because of Possible Health Risk (January 24)
• General Mills Issues Voluntary Recall of LÄRABAR and JamFrakas Peanut Butter Snack Bars (January 19)
• Whole Foods Market Recalls "Whole Foods Carob Energee Nuggets” (January 23)
• Amway Global Initiates Nationwide Recall of NUTRILITE Energy Bars Because of Possible Health Risk (January 23)
• Brent and Sam’s Announces Nation Wide Recall of Two Varieties of Archer Farms Brand Cookies (January 23)
• Brent and Sam’s Announces a Nationwide Recall of One Variety of Sam’s Choice Brand Cookies (January 23)
• Trader Joe’s Announces Voluntary Recall of Trader Joe’s Peanut Butter Chewy Coated & Drizzled Granola Bars, Nutty Chocolate Chewy Coated & Drizzled Granola Bars and Sutter’s Formula Cookies Due to Possible Health Risk (January 22)
• Parker Products, Inc. Announces Nationwide Voluntary Recall of Certain Peanut Butter Products (January 22)
• Arbonne International Voluntarily Recalls Figure 8 Peanut Butter Chews Due To Possible Health Risk (January 22)
• Jimmy's Cookies Issues Nationwide Recall of Various Peanut Butter Cookies Due to Possible Health Risk (January 22)
• Perry's Ice Cream Company Adds Two Products to Voluntary Recall of Select Peanut Butter Ice Cream Products (January 22)
• Kroger Recalls Additional Select Ice Cream Product Due to Possible Health Risk (January 20)
• General Nutrition Centers, Inc. Announces Nationwide Voluntary Recall of Certain Lots of GNC Triflex Peanut Butter Soft Chews (January 22)
• Chef Jay’s Food Products Announces Voluntary Nationwide Recall of Products Containing Peanut Butter Due to Possible Health Risk (January 21)
• Rain Creek Baking Corporation Announces Voluntary Withdrawal of Peanut Butter Turtles, Peanut Butter Baskets and Peanut Butter Princesses Due to Possible Health Risk (January 22)
• South Bend Chocolate Company Extends Nationwide Recall of Candy Containing Peanut Butter Because of Possible Salmonella Contamination (January 22)
• Nash Finch Recalls Bakery Products With Peanut Butter Distributed in Seven States Due to Possible Health Risk (January 20)
• Aspen Hills, Inc. Announces Voluntary Product Recall of Certain Cookie Dough Products (January 22)
• Best Brands Corp. Announces Voluntary Recall of Peanut Butter Frozen Cookie Dough (January 21)
• Lovin Oven, LLC Announces Voluntary Nationwide Recall of Certain Health Valley Organic Peanut Crunch Chewy Granola Bars (January 21)
• Landies Candies Co. Inc Announces Voluntary Recall of Select Peanut Butter Filled Chocolates Due to Possible Health Risk (January 21)
• Weis Markets Announces Voluntary Recall of Weis Quality (WQ) Cheese Peanut Butter Sandwich Crackers and WQ Toasted Peanut Butter Sandwich Crackers Due to Possible Health Risk (January 20)
• Blanton's Candies Recalls Peanut Butter Sticks Because of Possible Health Risk (January 21)
• Dinners Ready Meridian Recalls November & December Asian Marinated Flank Steak, Indonesian Chicken and Chicken Satay Prepared Meals Because of Possible Health Risk (January 20)
• Boca Grande Foods Announces a Nationwide Recall of POCO PAC®, and GRANDE GOURMET™ Peanut Butter Products Because of Possible Health Risk (January 20)
• Premier Nutrition Announces Voluntary Nationwide Recall of selected TWISTED and TITAN Branded Bars Containing Peanut Butter Due to Possible Health Risk (January 20)
• NutriSystem Announces Nationwide Voluntary Recall of Peanut Butter Granola Bar Due to Possible Peanut Corporation of America (PCA) Contamination and Potential Health Risk (January 21)
• Ready Pac Foods, Inc Announces Voluntary Product Recall (January 20)
• PetSmart Voluntarily Recalls Grreat Choice® Dog Biscuits (January 20)
• Nature's Path Recalls Peanut Butter Optimum Energy Bars Nationwide Because of Possible Health Risk (January 20)
• Country Maid Announces Voluntary Nationwide Recall of Classic Breaks® Peanut Butter Cookie Dough Due to Possible Health Risk (January 20)
• Evening Rise Bread Co. Recalls Peanut Butter Cookies and Bars Because of Possible Health Risk (January 19)
• Clif Bar & Company Announces Voluntary Nationwide Recall of CLIF® and LUNA® Branded Bars Containing Peanut Butter Due to Possible Health Risk (January 19)
• Kroger Recalls Select Ice Cream Products Due to Possible Health Risk (January 19)
• Abbott Nutrition Announces Voluntary Recall of ZonePerfect® Chocolate Peanut Butter Bars, ZonePerfect® Peanut Toffee Bars and NutriPals™ Peanut Butter Chocolate Bars in U.S., Mexico, New Zealand and Singapore (January 19)
• Meijer Announces Voluntary Recall for Some Meijer Brand Peanut Butter Crackers and Ice Cream Because of Possible Health Risk (January 19)
• Peanut Corporation of America Expands Nationwide Recall of Peanut Butter (January 18)
• Ralcorp Frozen Bakery Products Recalls Wal-Mart Bakery Brand Peanut Butter Cookies Because Of Possible Health Risk (January 18)
• Ralcorp Frozen Bakery Products Recalls Lofthouse Peanut Butter Cookies, Chuck's Chunky Peanut Butter Cookies And Pastries Plus Gourmet Cookies Nationwide Because Of Possible Health Risk (January 18)
• Ralcorp Frozen Bakery Products Recalls Food Lion Bake Shop Peanut Butter Cookies Nationwide Because Of Possible Health Risk (January 18)
• South Bend Chocolate Company Recalls Various Candys Containing Peanut Butter Because of Possible Salmonella Contamination (January 18)
• McKee Foods Corporation Announces Voluntary Nationwide Recall of Little Debbie® Peanut Butter Toasty and Peanut Butter Cheese Sandwich Crackers Because of Possible Health Risk (January 18)
• Perry's Ice Cream Company Announces Voluntary Recall of Select Peanut Butter Ice Cream Products Due to Possible Health Risk (January 17)
• Hy-Vee Inc. Recalls Bakery Products With Peanut Butter Distributed in Seven States Due to Possible Health Risk (January 17)
• Peanut Corporation of America Expands Nationwide Recall of Peanut Butter (January 16)
  
• Kellogg Company Announces Voluntary Nationwide Recall of Austin® and Keebler® Branded Peanut Butter Sandwich Crackers and Select Snack-Size Packs of Famous Amos® And Keebler® Soft Batch Peanut Butter Cookies Because of Possible Health Risk (January 16)
• Peanut Corporation of America Announces Voluntary Nationwide Recall of Peanut Butter (January 13)
• King Nut Issues Peanut Butter Recall (January 10)

A Product of the South (The Devil is in the Details):

The FDA reported Wednesday -- citing PCA's own test results -- that the company had found salmonella in its product, but shipped it anyway after a subsequent test proved negative.- I'm sure that the people at PCA who made that decision - went to Church on Sunday.

PCA denied the implication that it had retested the product in an attempt to get a favorable test result. PCA also noted that the FDA's report had not been finalized and said the company had taken corrective action during the agency's two-week investigation, "where possible."

It should be noted: Skippy, Jif, Peter Pan and Smuckers - relate that none of their peanuts came from PCA

The Economy is Job Won!

From now on - all that matters - and the only indicator to watch for the next 3 to 6 months is the Jobs report - Unemployment on Fridays - and Jobs first week of every month.

Update Jan 26 - Caterpillar lowers 2009 outlook; 20,000 workers targeted for cuts, Sprint/Nextel cuts 8,000 jobs, Pfizer 19,000 jobs , Home Depot 7000 jobs, Royal Philips Electronics, Europe's largest consumer-electronics firm, cuts 6,000 jobs. - all announced before 10am

Jan 27 - Corning 3,500 jobs, 1400 Temp workers, IBM 2000, a few UK companies 6,000
(note: there are thousands of small companies laying off from 1 to 300 employees every week - and there are thousands of "under the radar" employees being laid off - with no government
unemployment support - cash only, illegal immigrants, side jobs, odd jobs, and less work by "women of the night." - the "tip" industry as well as students, etc.)

I will not be posting for awhile - lots of companies announcing 4th quarter news - the above is just the beginning (Monday 1/26 - 8am)

It's all about Jobs and the news is distressing. A continuation of the numbers will lead toward a Depression OK - the las thing anyone is going to say is that word - so, let's call it "Depression-Lite"

If anything changes, I'll look in my vast source of knowledge - discounted for purposely misleading statements by Politically Correct - Mis-Leaders!!

PS. Other news today, Vladimir Putin announced today, That the United States is responsible for the Russia/Ukaraine/Europe natural gas problem. No question Putin is a Psychopath. It has been my experience over 66 years - people who lose, tend to continuing losing, and winners tend to continue to win. Russia is trying to "Cold it Up" in the world and probably will suffer for it.
Israel, without any energy sources, discovers a fairly large find in Natural Gas, they have been hostage to Egypt for years...things are changing.

El Viejo

MLK

Cell Service - Consumer Reports Jan 09

Recommended:
1. Verizon - Standout for most people - fastest (3G) network - also best prepaid service
2. Alltel - A fine alternative where Available (available to 26% - Verizon 87%)
3. T-mobile - if overseas travel frequently

Others to consider:
AT&T - has some cities as better - not many - biggest Feature - iPhone - carryover minutes, has largest percentage of calls dropped, erratic connections.
Sprint - although overall unfavorable - has Samsung Instinct HTC Diamond and 7pm night

Martha Stewart - Redux

Martha Stewart went to Jail for What? How long was she there? Her Profit was how Much?

There are atleast 10,000 people who work or have worked on Wall Street who Manipulated Securities and Investors our of 10 to 1000 times her crime - and are walking free today without consideration of prosecution.

I am not a fan of Martha, but I was a fan of Justice Due. I am now - impressed with a good crime - won!

Bernard Madoff is a great criminal - almost a genius - he was not tripped up by his own mistakes - but by a economy turned south - a classic Greek comedy turned tragedy.

If you want to steal - don't get caught, otherwise make it so big and directly implicating a number of important people - and you too will walk free.

Like The sound of a tree falling in the woods - crime is only a crime if you get caught - otherwise it could be quite liberating to your life!

What are the actions of society teaching your children?
What is Television teaching your children?

It's not what you steal, who you hurt...it's how smart you are doing it!

The Market's Future - Follow the Money

Most of the money coming out of the market is out
Lots of cash around - looking for a safe home
private cash is held by fickle holders
Cash knows no home
Government will be spilling buckets of Cash
They want it to work immediately
They want it to stay mostly in the Country
Decreasing withholding does not have a direction
Government spending on infra-structure immediately
Creates jobs, use of Concrete, Steel, Plastic, Energy
Construction Materials - lots of wood, sheetrock, etc.
Energy is under the control of an oligopoly - the price
can move independently by manipulating supply and demand

Want to invest money - Follow The Money

Some Attentive Bull Shit, Assholes of "The Word," Steven King, the writer, A tribute to Margarete.

There are some phrases I have chosen to discuss as we are in a new year - and they disgust me as a wordsmith (old line - and of minor importance)

A New Paradigm - Sometimes referred to as (gag and puke) "Thinking outside the Box." Thinking outside the box is maybe a 10 year old phrase - slang for people of many past ages who developed thinking...different than others - leading to success - Actually, to breakdown the word Paradigm (god knows where the name "new" came from - it is mostly redundant) - prevailing paradigm often represents a more specific way of viewing reality. New?

It's Curious -Curiosity is a thought by a rational mind. What differs humans from all other members of the animal kingdom - is rationality. "its" are not human. "I am curious" I (a human) have curiosity. "It's Curious" is a bastardization of the ability for a human to express all the words - a short cut, if you will. - The apostrophe (') does not save the statement as correct - my opinion.

Cautiously Optimistic - I always think of someone who is cautiously optimistic as riding on the brakes as they accelerate. Caution belongs more to pessimism - "throwing caution to the wind" belongs to Optimism. - combining the two is an amorphism.

OfTen pronouncing the T - It has now become acceptable, in dictionaries, to pronounce the T, why (?) because no one in education could stop the rote reader from saying it. Where was William F. Buckley when all this shit went down.

Unintended Consequences is generally the result of moving before understanding decisions and their related variations - selling a product before it is finished and tested would be a good example - of Rush to Market - and the dire results. ...And I might add $700 Billion, much of which, were put to less than desirable use.

Possible Improbabilities - Not thinking broad enough (outside the box, if you will) in addition to Unintended Consequences - not taking the time to finish the job.

Perceived Improbabilities - A variation of the above

Persistence vs. Determination - persistence an often over used term for being Determined. Persistence has most of the word resistance, buried therein. Determination has "breaking through the wall" as its goal. Two entirely different attitudes.

Before I move on to one of the more pleasurable times in my life - I have found a book by
Steven King called "On Writing" - a wonderful discussion of writing techniques - who does, who doesn't - what should and what shouldn't. I have never seen or read any of his movies or novels. I place "On Writing" complimentary to "The Elements of Style" which he also recognizes as great.

Our Secretary (of equal footing in the office - to all) and I were probably the last office liaison to begin the morning with coffee and Dictation. She used shorthand on a pad split in the middle with a line. I dictated the Letter, note, cetra - she transcribed and presented me with the final product - not always...sometimes, she presented me with what was dictated - but corrected - what was necessary to make the Letter - Politically Correct - at that time called "easily digestible." We then discuss - my feelings of taking the "umph" out of the letter, but mostly the letter was sent with her suggested corrections. It became "our" letter.

Obviously I could not use the "7 obscene words banned from TV"

(There are seven obscene words referring to sexual intercourse, human waste, homosexuality,.Body parts, off-color and one who practices the sin of Oedipus, an odd compound curse-word, the (Mother) oath.) ( decoded: shit, piss, fuck, cunt, cocksucker, motherfucker, and tits. - Thank you George Carlin for this and a shit load of other commentary that made life colorful and interesting!) - as an aside - George Carlin has always been cast as a NY Jew, when in actuality he is from a devout Catholic Family, stayed clear of the Priests (for obvious reasons) until he remove himself from the Church permanently. The "7 obscene words banned from TV" became a Case in the US. Supreme Court, under the First Amendment as it related to George Carlin's usage before the screen.

I digress...

Ah, Yes - Margarete also did not like the use of "Ellipses" which you will notice after "I digress" "..." and after "Ah, Yes" "-". There are other Ellipses - and every time I used them Margarete would look up and raise an eyebrow - I would say these morning liaisons lasted about 18 years and are my fondest memory of "work as I knew it!"

Finally, a common "irk" is younger people speaking too quickly, "sing-songy" with nothing to say, speaking too quickly with poor pronunciation (marbles in their mouths, if you please)
Does this have something to do with my 66 years - sure!

I dedicate this post to Margarete Normann wherever you are!

Paul

“Possible Improbables” - Doug Kass

Doug Kass, a noted commenter on the Markets and Economy has a 60% success in predicting the “Possible Improbables” of past years. Here is his list. Based upon his past performance 12 of these 20 should come about:

1. The Russian mafia and Russian oligarchs are found to be large investors with Madoff.

2. Housing stabilizes sooner than expected.

3. The nation’s commercial real estate markets experience only a shallow pricing downturn in the first half of 2009.

4. The U.S. economy stabilizes sooner than expected.

5. The U.S. stock market rises by close to 20% in the year’s first half.

6. A second quarter “growth scare” bursts the bubble in the government bond market.
7. Commodities markets remain subdued.

8. Capital spending disappoints further.

9. The hedge fund and fund of funds industries do not recover in 2009.

10. Mutual fund redemptions from 2008 reverse into inflows in 2009.

11. State and municipal imbalances and deficits mushroom.

12. The automakers and the UAW come to an agreement over wages.

13. The new administration replaces SEC Commissioner Cox.

14. Large merger of equals deals multiply.

15. Focus shifts for several media darlings.

16. The Internet becomes the tactical nuke of the digital age.

17. A handful of sports franchises file bankruptcy.

18. The Fox Business Network closes.

19. Old, leveraged media implode.

20. The Middle East’s infrastructure build-out is abruptly halted owing to “market conditions.”

>

Playing For Change: Song Around the World

Pink Floyd

Hello.
Is there anybody in there?
Just nod if you can hear me.
Is there anyone home?

Come on, now.
I hear youre feeling down.
Well I can ease your pain,
Get you on your feet again.

Relax.
I need some information first.
Just the basic facts:
Can you show me where it hurts?
Ok.
Just a little pinprick. [ping]
Therell be no more --aaaaaahhhhh!
But you may feel a little sick.

Can you stand up?
I do believe its working. good.
Thatll keep you going for the show.
Come on its time to go.

I have become comfortably numb.

(Better living through Chemistry)

Remembering This Morining's Dream

I have spent the last few years reading and practicing Meditation. In side discussions on the subject were - the learning in remembering dreams - not so much of what they mean but how the mind works at different levels. After all, what else does one have to do at 66 years of age.

This morning I remained sleeping past my normal wakeup because I was at an outdoor fest, with tents, couches, music outdoors, seemingly with people of the 60's. I was lounging on a couch when others near by and on the same couch was Henry Kissinger, and the nearby couches in a semi circle were Thomas Friedman and George Will (Ann Coulter was not in this dream.)

Except for Kissinger (in a tie and no jacket - but short sleeve shirt no less) the others were in casual clothing except George Will had black shoes with black socks while Friedman had cross training shoes w/ white socks.

Since I was there, I at least got eye contact and head nods. The discussions were centered around "Where are the good writers?" - and what were the basics of Good Writing and Flow.
How quickly could the subject be presented - to the writers conclusion. My radio was on automatically as a form of alarm - NPR. They were just finishing up a discussion relating to a current statement that Henry Kissinger had made. How quickly we develope (what appears to be a long dream - maybe 15 minutes) by an outside stimulus within seconds.

Certain people who have never been in my dreams:
my 2nd wife
2 loves from several years ago
my dogs and horses.

Certain dreams that are frequently reoccuring:
Not being able to find a class, or test, or paper needed to graduate college.
falling but never landing.
Meeting with clients not being able to solve their problems, getting wrapped up in getting to the solution only to wake up and knowing that the problems did not need a solution - I was out.
Where I grew up - the home, etc.
My Father and his "being there" at times and discussions.

Do I try to analyze these Dreams? no, as I'm working on the remembering - haven't had a nighmare in many years - no cold or hot sweats - life is good!

My current "working on" is various levels of consiousness - how moving through problems speeds up actions - and moving through pleasures - slows down.

Whatever.....

an aside, and not related - I do suffer from Cognitive Dissonance.

Cognitive Dissonance occurs in the mind of an individual when a theoretical belief system is confronted by factual evidence demonstrating outcomes contrary to what theories dictate should occur. (the picture of the brain above is the brain's reaction to stimulus of fear and pleasure in its manufacture of Dopamine to deal with the stimulus - just an aside.)

Finally, I remember a statement made to me by my favorite niece: Paul, "it's always, all about you!' Wow, I said to myself...it's like my son telling me that I was insecure - and then realizing that "all about you" and "being insecure" are both assessments made toward everyone by someone - and by everyone to that someone! Reflex Reaction under, undo stress!

They are both on my short list of "Loved Ones." - both the statements and the beloved members of my family.

2009 Immediate disappointment, Overreaction, jumping to conculsions

The immediacy of Obama becoming President with more problems than can be imagined - the press and talking heads will convince the impatient populace to become disappointed quickly in what they thought was a messiah and cure all to everything "not right"

I believe "steady as she goes" should be a reasonable reaction to the changes that will take time to take hold.

A Parable:

There was a merchant in Baghdad who went to the market with his servant. There they saw Death, who stared at the servant in what seemed a threatening way. Later the servant said "Master, lend me a horse. I shall ride to Samara, and there Death will not find me." The merchant did so, then returned to the market, where he again saw Death, whom he approached and asked why he had stared at his servant in such a threatening way. Death responded, "I wasn't threatening him. I was just very surprised to see him here in Baghdad, since I have an appointment with him in Samara later this afternoon."

New Year Thinking - Building a new Portfolio from Scratch for a new beginning of the next Decade 2009 -2010. The thought that the Economic

Downturn is going to last a long time is presented by the over 40 crowd that have no feeling for the speed with which things have to move faster in the 21st Century - This revival will be burning with speed - anything else will be intolerable. Unintended Consequences? Sure they are always the surprise - how exciting!

I guess the best way to begin to build a 2009 -2010 portfolio from scratch would think about the date the market will begin its slow but big turn - Which if the Obama Team develops the proper plan to put $3 Trillion to work in Harmony. I would say that March to June will be the "Field Testing" of a no pork congress moving bills (as they were presented) quickly to Companies who know how to get the Job Done.

Dollar Cost Averaging along with Diversification (not necessarily by industry) would be the method.

The following is the beginning of my list of (to be developed) Core Holdings:

Intel
Apple
Berkshire Hathaway
IBM
GE
Amgen
Google
OIL
Natural Gas
Copper
subsequent additions 1/6/09
as a group:
Amazon
FedEx
UPS
3M

That is my beginning list - the reasons are that the first 7 are 2nd to none at what they do.
The last three have been trampled upon and are ready to find a median value which is about double the current prices. My personal feelings - Intel is the strongest best managed company in the universe - bar none (see what an idiot I am?) In dollar cost averaging I would "top heavy" the first 7 with $5 for $3 with the exception of AAPL and BRK/A /B I would weight inversely.

If you have any suggestions - I will move this list forward - If you comment this post - I'll add it with your suggestion and the Why.

ps. Mortality Considerations. There is no doubt that Steven Jobs (APPLE) is having health problems - considering the nature of his first bout - most die from pancreatic cancer the first time around. Warren Buffett is no spring chicken and is considered the Company (BRK/A BRK/B) his demise would have a hard hit on the stock.

Both Companies are run by "People" but the market will play to "what is perceived." Therefore dollar cost averaging should move 3 months at a time - increasing another 3 months ++, etc. holding back amounts to be allocated to an unfortunate event for these companies where you would start averaging in at a big drop in price for the next 3 month period until these securities regain confidence and price.

pps. What about War, natural catastrophies, etc. - "These are the cost of doing Business" - nothing personal.

ppps. What about Banks and Financial Institutions? - I don't understand them - my weakness.

Finally, and for me, we are in a most exciting "time". Obama - is the promise - promised!

I guess we can look at the Retail Economy which affects the Productive Economy as two human bodies. You feed raw materials into the mouth and shit comes out of the bottom. The above graph represents the beginning of a great constipation of the finished product - which will eventually back up to the input of raw materials - to the point of the body stops functioning.
So the first Human Body starts to shut down and it causes the second Human Body to begin its shut down. As the body shuts down all of the labor and equipment in the body begins to shut down also...That's why the importance of voluminous amounts of shit to keep exiting the body is a necessity.

Unemployment will enter the next level up in early 2009. Manufacturing equipment will not be needed, nor will the people who work in this industry. Raw Materials, energy, copper, aluminum, steel, plastic, Oil, will begin to be stored for the future and the limits of storage. Basic material production and employment will shut down. OK. Prices will drop and pick up steam as we move into early spring - unemployment will be over 10% maybe to 15% - Obama will be entering the scene on Jan 20th - assuming congress goes along - $3 Trillion will be pumped into the economy and offered to companies who can hit the ground running - and pass off their increased production - like a relay race - one running passing to the next running, etc.

If a symphony and ballet is created by this action - the economy should on its turn to recovery by early Fall....or..........?

My Aspirations for the New Year - Focus

These guys are between 18 and 40 - I guess it's one step above the best drugs. I hope some day to do smaller water than this - at my beginning level - I certainly have had a very small taste of this drug. Someone asked me - "Is this some kind of Bravado - Ego thing" and I related that it is more for my own excitement and pleasure - When I went through my initial Whitewater experience (type II and type II+ (These guys are in type VI+) - when I was finished I felt my heart going like Popeye in the cartoons...after the spinach. I'm working on getting up to type III+ next fall.










This Guy's name is Emily

Happy Xmas (War Is Over) - John Lennon

What a perfect day to stop the war and bring our troops home - NOW!

"An eye for an eye will make us all blind" - Mahatma Gandhi

Suicide Watch - Dead Men Walking as I write.

Suicide is condemning yourself to death. First you visit "Hell on Earth" - the real and only hell - then you see that every turn available is unacceptable. Anxiety reaches astronomical levels, Searching for the way - out of this hell. You eliminate social contact around your life, including intimates - they cannot help, only interfere - It's a private matter of the utmost, and can only be experienced by one. There are many ways to commit suicide - the internet has thorough discussions, mostly by people who have failed. It behooves everyone to learn the best method for themselves - and then to fine tune the procedure - so that success is guaranteed. How to Point the Gun, what pills to take, the importance of the plastic bag and rubberband - unless of course you're going to jump or drown yourself (messy.) There is a point in anyone's life (anyone!) that suicide becomes a thought, moved up to an option, moved up to a plan and "Execution." It is...the perfect crime!

Today, The first suicide has been announced in the "Bernie Madoff ponsi scheme" potentially ripping off or losing up to $50 Million of other peoples money.

Thierry Magon de La Villehuchet, who ran a fund that invested with Bernard Madoff, was found dead at his office today in an apparent suicide. De la Villehuchet, 65, was a co-founder and chief executive officer of Access International Advisors, according to a marketing document. Access, based in New York, invested $1.4 billion with Madoff.

Before founding Access in 1994 with Patrick Littaye, de La Villehuchet was chairman and CEO of Credit Lyonnais Securities USA, the U.S. investment banking arm of the French bank, according to Access marketing documents. Prior to joining Credit Lyonnais in 1987, he ran Interfinance, an international broker firm specializing in French, Belgian and Italian stock markets that he founded in 1983.

More to come - a Certainty!

Nursing Home Reading for me in the Future

I mostly write this site so, When I'm older and grey-er (grey for age, gray for color) mostly feeble, mind searching for the past, not even knowing there is a present or future - past driving, hardly walking - shuffling mostly - hardly dressing out of these sweats - I'll have something to read and take comfort - how wonderful the past was, compared to this present time (maybe 2020.)

A summary of thoughts from various people (I respect - there are very few) just before this exceptional time - Christmas 2008:

"This is a truly global recession. We learned overnight that Japanese exports collapsed 26.7% year-over-year in November; that's the biggest drop on record. Shipments to the US plunged at an unprecedented 34% year-over-year rate. Meanwhile, imports into Japan sank 14.4% year-over-year in a sign of weakening domestic demand. A similar story out of Thailand, where exports dropped 18.6% in what was the biggest drop in at least 16 years. In China, interest rates were cut for the fifth time in three months."

"Now that the auto-makers have secured a $17 billion bailout, the next group heading to Washington for government assistance is property developers. Take a look at the front page of today's Wall Street Journal, "Developers Ask US For Bailout as Massive Debt Looms." Developers are warning policymakers that office complexes, malls, hotels and other commercial real estate are headed into default and bankruptcy."

Let's stop here, early in the discussion and point immediate blame to the Financial Industry, mostly in the United States - meaning Banks (loans, mortgages, credit cards) Security Dealers
(theft and manipulation) - derivatives without substance - Insurance Companies - by complicity, and finally Congress - greed thru eating too much "pork" and taking too much loot from the Financial industry - Lobbying - devils work. Big Business through complicity and professionals that support them - Lawyers and Accountants. (remember what Shakespeare said?)


I Digress......(sigh..)

We have 1.2 million unemployed construction workers. We have 123,000 unemployed architects and engineers. We have 83,000 unemployed machinery workers. We have 145,000 unemployed transportation-related workers (and that is just the "legal" ones) no one is counting the undocumented, the "under the table - black market ones) - lets just add 250,000 for them.
So that brings us to close to 2 million in the infra-structure business - Obama's focus.

But - Wait A Minute - the bulk of the joblessness is in financials (up to half a million), retail/wholesale (1.2 million), leisure/hospitality (1.3 million) and health/education (1.2 million) - Wow, another 4 million And if investment bankers, shopkeepers, bell captains and medical chart technicians have anything in common it is that they don't have much experience in shovel-ready activities.

Households have lost over $7 trillion in terms of net worth in the year ending 3Q, and it looks like this wealth destruction will top $10 trillion when the 4Q Fed flow­-of-funds data come out.
Christmas shopping is seeing deflated prices (Real Deflated Prices) an average of 50 to - 60% off listed prices - Just to get some cash, any cash out of their inventory! DEFLATION.

Our Population today is about 3 times that of 1929 - we are in a 1929 nose dive - with a much heavier plane - with more sophisticated (financial) instruments - a dumber government - and in Bad Weather - It has been determined that the Mistake of the Last Depression - the government did not flood the economy with cash - which would lessened the Depression.
So, We'll see...........

We are facing International Trade Protectionism (most countries looking inward) setting tariffs for foreign goods, governments raising money to protect their industries from foreign takeovers, and finally - wars for survival in unstable countries. It's all about self-preservation.

What makes Gold and commodities look so good is the lack of stability for gold and spending on infrastructure for Commodities. Cash is king, however - at least for now. How do you buy Gold
you can't - folks are waiting in line for "real" gold - you can only buy derivatives. "real" gold is well over $1,200 an ounce if you can find it - the derivatives are sold on the market somewhere
around $800+. What is a derivative? A Promise. What caused most of the financial difficulties of the 2008 financial crisis - Derivatives - of financial securities.

Why is the weather so bleak outside today?

Sources: David Rosenberg (primary) John Mauldin, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Business Week - US Government statistics, Department of Labor, etc.

ps. Shakespeare said, "First, lets kill all the Lawyers" - that's more than 50% of congress, all the judges, maybe 20% of Wall Street - a good percentage of state and local legislators - maybe 10% of corporate leaders. I guess, that's a good starting place.

What Would an OBGYN know about our Economy - WTF? Ron Paul (R) His party ridiculed him - The Evangelistas ran him out of the party!

Peter Schiff, an economist, was laughed off the Business TV Shows and his opinions were minimized.

Jim Wilder - A friend and Riding Partner a belated Rest in Peace

Valley of the Gods, Utah

I was visiting a riding area in Arizona that I had been away from for 3 years. Word from Ron Olson conveyed the news of Jim's passing

November 7, 1940 ~ March 5, 2008 James R. Wilder, 67 of Blanding, UT passed away March 5, 2008. Born to William and Marjorie Wilder in Yoakum, TX on November 7, 1940, and spent most of his childhood in Maryland. Jim graduated from the University of Maryland with a BA and made a life career with The Drug Enforcement Administration in Washington, DC. Jim leaves behind the love of his life Janine, along with children and grandchildren



Jim Wilder, Horseman

Obama!

World Internet Traffic Digitized

"Because the truth is that promoting science isn't just about providing resources — it's about protecting free and open inquiry. It's about ensuring that facts and evidence are never twisted or obscured by politics or ideology," he said. "I could not have a better team to guide me in this work."
- Barack Obama

"From landing on the moon, to sequencing the human genome, to inventing the Internet, America has been the first to cross that new frontier because we had leaders who paved the way," Obama said in announcing his selections in his weekly radio address. "Leaders who not only invested in our scientists, but who respected the integrity of the scientific process."

In his radio address, Obama said he planned early next year to more closely address the issue of engaging the nation's technology community to "harness technology and innovation to create jobs, enhance America's competitiveness and advance our national priorities."

"It's time we once again put science at the top of our agenda and worked to restore America's place as the world leader in science and technology," he said.

Obama had been making headway in National Programs - he is just warming up -to throw "Fast Ball Strikes." Next year will be Turbo Charged - redirection of 300+ million people and 3 1/2 million Square miles of Terra Firma along with its waters and seaways.- It's in the Air - can you feel it?

ps. a friend just wrote: "the Burger House in Miami (aka La Cocina de Casillas) is open and they have the best green chile burros on the planet. " - If you are near, please write your opinion - I need a confirm "Trust but Verify" before I fly there to try it out!

The Federal Reserve Board - a few minutes ago

Arches National Park, Moab, Utah 2003

Has changed it's "moving forward" attitude - which shows their concern, publicly, that the Recession is what we want as opposed to a Depression which is our direction - although they have not used those words - they have looked over the horizon and see something - they are not willing to head up with! A Brave move - being ahead of the problem rather than being behind, as they have been.

Finally, the Catalyst along with the Malloff ponzi scheme - should be - a turning point - ready for Obama to take over - like a script has been written - we are entering Act III, Scene 1 (the "Hump")

Hari Kari - Seppuku (切腹, "stomach-cutting")

An ancient form of ritual suicide that defeated samurai, or those whose shame was 'too unbearable' would use to restore their honor in death. In sepuku, one would take a wakizashi (short sword) and dissembowel oneself (Two stab cuts in the stomach allowing the contents to fall out in front of the body) The less noise you made while doing this, the braver you were and therefore the more honorable, however this did not last long as not long after you had begun, a close friend, comrade, or enemy would put you out of your misery by cleaving your head from your shoulders in one swift blow of the katana (another japanese sword).

It is Time, these Wall Street "Shamefuls" [sic] stepped off the curb, onto Wall Street, to restore their Honor.


There were a large number of Funds - That Bought into
other Funds (Funds of Funds) that did nothing for their
customers other than to take another Fee for moving the
cash. These fees were 1% of the value + 20% of the Profits -
annually. The List of these "Funds of Funds" implicated is
enormous in, both in number of Funds participating and the
Amounts lost!
My example of Fairfield Greenwich Group has 20+ partners
who should line up on the curb - I will contribute to "Fund
for Swords" (about $2,000 for the pair).

Adult Diaper sales are up in Connecticut - to the point of
empty shelves - Wives, and Daughters, so disappointed in
their mates, and fathers, are confessing their countless
"infidelities and affairs" in the neighborhood to further
humiliate their dishonored mates and fathers. For Shame!

A (new to me) Google Feature - Google Desktop

Google offered me a new feature called "Google Desktop"
I rate this feature along with Mozilla, Netvibes, and Flickr
as the Best Downloads I have added to my computer in the
last 36 months.

Google Desktop - will, when doing a Web Search, also
search my Hard Drive and Cache and give me "the where
it is located" - like trying to find something you have searched
before - and you would like to go back to that specific search.

Download Google Desktop - Go to Preferences. Within Preferences
are four tabs. The first tab "Desktop Search" First area within:
Check - Enable Content Indexing

Next: Search Types - check all that you use and at the bottom
check (of that section) Check "secure pages in web history"

Go Down a few categories to "Google Integration"
Check -"Show Desktop Search Results in Google Web Search"
Across the top tabs go to "Other" and check - Enable Safe Browsing

Now when you do a Google Search you will get both a web search
and a "within your computer search - including a previous specific
area you would like to get back to.

Due Diligence This Fund lost 1/2 of its $14 Billion

Fairfield Greenwich Group
As of November 1, 2008, assets under management at FGG totaled approximately $14.1 billion, of which approximately $7.5 billion was invested in vehicles connected to Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities.

Partners:
* Walter Noel
* Jeffrey Tucker
* Andrés Piedrahita
* Richard Landsberger
* Lourdes Barreneche
* Cornelis Boele
* Matthew C. Brown
* Yanko Della Schiava
* Harold Greisman
* Jacqueline Harary
* Vianney d’Hendecourt
* David B. Horn
* Daniel Lipton
* Julia Luongo
* Mark McKeefry
* Charles Murphy
* Maria Teresa Pulido Mendoza
* Santiago Reyes
* Andrew Smith
* Philip Toub
* Amit Vijayvergiya

FGG’s due diligence process is deeper and broader than a typical Fund of Funds, resembling that of an asset management company acquiring another asset manager, rather than a passive investor entering a disposable investment.

FGG’s legal, compliance, and accounting teams specialize in investment management regulation, securities compliance, corporate operations, and tax issues. Hedge fund managers function within an ever more complex legal and regulatory landscape, and the role of this part of the diligence exam is to determine the seriousness of any deficiencies in this area which may cause risk of sanction, loss, or reputational embarrassment.

Both in-house and retained legal professionals interview the management and staff of the manager, research regulatory filings, and review corporate organizational documents, as well as fund memoranda and related material contracts.

addendum: After 10 hours of thinking about this, listening to all the discussions of Psychopathic behavior, etc, ad nauseum, more ad nauseum, I think Bernard Madoff cast a big net to catch big fish. Unfortunately, any nets catch the unintended little fish - the cost of doing business. I am very impressed (I don't care what you think) with his ability to keep this thing up in the air and off the ground (for years.) How he got around filings, registrations - How he must have sent statements to all the "fish" that kept their balances (that read their statements, that believed the statements - monied people) how he must have filed 1099B's and dividend distributions without raising an eyebrow - was pure genius - I am impressed - In the Hall of Fame of Great Performers - he will go down and be talked about for the next 50 Years. Bernie - see you at the next Kennedy Center for Performing Arts - WOW - way to go!!!

Exclusive Palm Beach Country Club - Rape

Bernard Madoff, former Nasdaq Stock Market chairman and founder of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC, was arrested and charged with securities fraud Thursday in what federal prosecutors called a Ponzi scheme that could involve losses of more than $50 billion.

Among Madoff's major investors were members of the exclusive Palm Beach Country Club. It was boasted, that one of the privileges of being a member of the Palm Beach Country Club was that you got access to Bernard Madoff investing your money.

"Bernard Madoff is a longstanding leader in the financial services industry with an unblemished record," Dan Horwitz, a lawyer for Madoff, told the Journal. "He is a person of integrity. He intends to fight to get through this unfortunate event. "Madoff's firm is known as securities broker dealer, but he also runs a separate investment advisory business which had more than $17 billion in assets under management, federal authorities said, citing two unidentified employees and a Securities and Exchange Commission filing.

Madoff counted several large hedge fund investment firms as clients, along with some European banks, so if his firm has lost more than $50 billion, the impact could be widespread. On Wednesday, Madoff told two senior employees that he was "finished," that he had "absolutely nothing," that "it's all just one big lie," and that it was "basically, a giant Ponzi scheme," federal prosecutors said in their statement.

According to a criminal complaint filed on Thursday and cited by the Journal, Madoff "deceived investors by operating a securities business in which he traded and lost investor money, and then paid certain investors purported returns on investment with the principal received from other, different investors, which resulted in losses of approximately billions of dollars."

Madoff also said his business was insolvent, and that it had been for years, estimating losses to be at least $50 billion, prosecutors alleged, again citing the two unidentified employees.

According to the complaint, Madoff told one of his senior employees that clients were seeking about $7 billion in redemptions and that "he was struggling to obtain the liquidity necessary to meet those obligations." The employees believed the firm had about $17 billion under management.

Earlier this week, Madoff also allegedly told an employee that he wanted to pay bonuses to employees this month-- earlier than usual. Later, two employees who met with Madoff at his apartment were told that the business was a giant Ponzi scheme, which they took to mean that Madoff "for years been paying returns to investors out of principal received from other, different investors." Madoff allegedly told those employees that the firm was insolvent, according to the complaint.

PS. Experts, Geniuses, Mavens - an unwarranted appraisal of any living being. Sooner or later, time passes them by, they begin to hedge their ideas, lie, cheat, steal, etc. In aging they have to feed their "presence" of the past. Once someone has been pronounced they are one of these titles, you can be sure they are a fool. In death, Genius can finally be titled to a very few.

"I feel like God wants me to run for President. I can't explain it, but I sense my country is going to need me. Something is going to happen... I know it won't be easy on me or my family, but God wants me to do it." - George W. Bush

"God told me to strike at al Qaeda and I struck them, and then he instructed me to strike at Saddam [Hussein], which I did, and now I am determined to solve the problem in the Middle East. If you help me I will act, and if not, the elections will come and I will have to focus on them." - George W. Bush

"I'm the Commander, see ... I do not need to explain why I say things. That's the interesting thing about being the President ... [I] don't feel like I owe anybody an explanation." - George W. Bush

"I do know I'm ready for the job. And, if not, that's just the way it goes" - George W. Bush 2000

I don't see how you can be president at least from my perspective, how you can be president, without a relationship with the Lord. - George W. Bush

"If most of the breaks go to wealthy people it's because most of the people who pay taxes are wealthy - George W. Bush
(The Majority of Income Taxes come from the Middle Class in the USA)

It's very possible, God used these times to close the lid on his so called Vocal followers to keep quiet - to keep their prayers and wishes to themselves - to ask for forgiveness - 100 million people rushed George W. Bush into the White House in the name of god - How you act in the future will determine how you are forgiven - God told me that!

Moving to the Middle, as it should be.

President Elect Barack Obama, will lead an aggressive approach to the beginning of his administration. His detractors (voting and complaining) from the right, mostly about raising taxes - will be quieted, immediately, as they hear that raising taxes on the rich - will be put off for a year or two - quelling and silencing conservatives, evangelistas and Fox News (perversion at its best!)

A Solution in Search of a Problem - $ 3 Trillion

Everyone is picking away at the $750 Billion rescue money - wasted on the likes of the Acquisition of Bear Stearns, by JP Morgan, the 2 bail outs (so far) of AIG Insurance Co. - Forcing some on the large 8 banks to take some - now the Automobile Companies - Avis is now looking for some of it. It is said it will probably increase to $3 Trillion before they know where they are. Actually, they don't know at this time when the signal will come that one of the placements will turn the country's economic problems around - stay tuned - the line is gathering at the "Give out Window"

It wasn't long ago that the Great Orator Everett Dirkson, Illinois Seanator made a statement about a budget item - "“A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon it adds up to real money.”!"


He had a slow voice that sounded like it came out of a pack of Cigarettes - A vocal cocktail part Lyndon Johnson part Paul Harvey - and a thousand packs of Chesterfield, Camel or Lucky Strike - no filter tip - A la carte - All entertainment!

1960's
Everett Dirkson, today would be considered
Beyond Right Wing, Beyond Evangelistas,
a peg, standing alone, in the extreme right
field. Also, a friend of Lyndon Johnson,
big liberal from the south

Everett Dirkson
1896 - 1969 died of Lung Cancer

Addition To Post Below concerning Store Closings

AT&T to cut 12,000 (4%) of it's employees

Credit Suisse said Thursday that it will cut roughly 5,300, or 11% - London

Nomura Holdings (London) 1000 jobs cut after Lehman purchased assets

DuPont to dismiss 6,500 employees, including contractors - The 4,000 contractors, by agreement, are not employees but self-employed. Nationally, this will be a very big number that is not reflected in unemployment figure.

Announced this morning before 10am - this should continue every morning for awhile I believe the Jobs Report on Friday will let us see how many people have been "rendered" unemployed by the unnamed companies and companies too small to mention - but gathered as "The Unnamed" will be substantial.

To My Family and Friends - My plans for 2009

Ponte di veia Verona

From December 1st, continuing at Pleasant Harbor, Lake Pleasant 15 miles west of Cave Creek, AZ. In early March, flying to Brooklyn to Visit Lily.At the end of March I plan to move (from Cave Creek, AZ) to Kernville, Ca. for a month. I'll be taking some Whitewater instruction from Sierra South on the Kern River - snow melt from the Sierra Mtn Range. In May, I'll be heading to the Payette River, North of Boise, ID Cascade Kayak School in Horseshoe Bend, Idaho, June is open for somewhere in Idaho or Oregon and then in late June thru August to Stanley Idaho, north of Sun Valley - the Salmon River. That's it till Labor Day. In the early fall, I'll be heading toward some of the rivers in Utah - Time frame unknown - leading back to Pleasant Harbor by November 1st through March of 2010. I have found that plans are a structure not always to be followed - any influence to my life can change my direction 360 degrees, except for staying in the general area of the 13 Western States of the United States. On my 70th Birthday, I'm moving to Verona, Italy to spend the remainder of my life - consuming the wine, food and scenic comfort of the area - closest Airport - Milan - closest neighbor Croatia, to the east, Switzerland to the north, France to the west and the Mediterranean Sea to the south. Dreams are my initial step to planning. I plan on sending my Daughter and her mom a year ahead to locate the best place for me to live - the two best minds I know for the task!

P.S. there is a race going on for my 70th birthday - will I just be running out of cash - or will I be saved by a resurrected Stock Market?

- Barry Ritholtz "The Big Picture"

Housing as of September! - things have turned worse - Since September

Year over year means the prior 12 months 31.9% Phoenix
3.5 the latest month could equal 42%. So, it appears to be
rising at an increasing rate, as it peaks, it should continue
to rise at a decreasing rate - maybe overall, Phoenix will
be -60 to 70% before the blood clots.

Back in 1929 crash, it was said that some Wall Street stockbrokers and Bankers, Jumped from their office windows - committing suicide. People felt sorry for them. In 2008, they had their drivers pick them up, take them to their private planes and holiday for awhile.

Thanks, JLK

Happy Thanksgiving

This holiday has the most significance of all the holidays for me. Most others are either Religious or celebrating an individual or so. It is so simple a a celebration, that serves nothing else, but the joys of friendship and family. At best the only present given is brought to the table.

"The Pilgrims made seven times more graves than huts. No Americans have been more impoverished than these who, nevertheless, set aside a day of thanksgiving."
~H.U. Westermayer

We are currently going through some very interesting times, the outcome, of which, is uncertain. (uncertain, that's all.) ........"Cowboy up!"

The REAL Maverick: Present Economy worse than Depression

Banking

Banking

"I sincerely believe that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principles of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale."
~Thomas Jefferson

hat-tip to Brian @ AlphaTrends

How do things look pre-Thanksgiving

This is as of now:
There will be a longer list pre-Christmas
and a very large list post- Christmas

Circuit City (filed Chapter 11)
Ann Taylor- 117 stores nationwide closing
Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug ,and Catherine's to close 150 stores nationwide
Eddie Bauer to close 27 stores and more after January
Cache will close all stores
Talbots closing down specialty stores
J. Jill closing all stores (owned by Talbots)
Pacific Sunwear (also owned by Talbots)
GAP closing 85 stores
Footlocker closing 140 stores more to close after January
Wickes Furniture closing down
Levitz closing down remaining stores
Bombay closing remaining stores
Zales closing 82 stores and 105 after January
Whitehall closing all stores
Piercing Pagoda closing all stores
Disney closing 98 stores and will close more after January.
Home Depot closing 15 stores 1 in NJ ( New Brunswick )
Macys to close 9 stores after January
Linens and Things closing all stores
Movie Galley Closing all stores
Pep Boys Closing 33 stores
Sprint/Nextel closing 133 stores
JC Penney closing a number of stores after January
Ethan Allen closing down 12 stores.
Wilson Leather closing down all stores
Sharper Image closing down all stores
K B Toys closing 356 stores
Loweʼs to close down some stores
Dillard's to close some stores

So, what's the problem with Deflation?

I write this for my Children:

Businesses will reduce wages - that's not an easy process- it takes time, so for now price deflation will increase borrowing power.For companies with fixed-rate debt, price deflation makes debt more onerous - a fall in the price they can charge for their products lowers their revenues and makes it harder for them to make their loan payments.

We can spiral down the above, what falls first, what falls last, who survives, who fails, what are real interest rates (as inflation is taken out and deflation sets in - probably, and actually, higher) siphon it all down, let all the talking heads do a "work out" on the what ifs - the answer is simple.

The net result is positive (at this time... in our economy...for the survivors.) Wages falling slower than prices result in increased buying power for the consumer - temporarily - 6 to 18 months, maybe. You see... Government Monetary Policy - is not working...not working! Lowering interest rates, flooding the markets with money, boosting up financial businesses, increasing unemployment time limits...not working!

Unintended consequences...a bit of deflation that boosts real wages may be the best way to get American households out of the hole. Remember, reduced wages will take time and resistence, price reductions will be quick and immediate.

Who will survive? Individuals and Businesses who get their houses in order - actually, a cleansing process - a painful result for those who live in disorder, with excesses of one kind or another. - A chapter of Survival of the Fittest. Unpaid Credit Card Balances will fill the morgues with people who loved "poisoned candy" - to an excess.

How to practice. Clean your houses, live with what you have, do without what you want, Look at your money coming in and going out - one is suppose to be greater than the other! Those three will become the foundation of survival.

ps:
Did I mention patience? This first decade of the 21st century is now being defined in its 8th year. The "turn" might slowly be recognized in early 2011 and our economy might start to "show" in 2012 -2015. By that time, The Country and The World will look entirely different - let's hope, not like the story (in the book) "The Road" by Cormac McCarthy.

Other Must reads:-
"How We Know What isn't So" - Thomas Gilovich
"The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Early Morning in an New Society

"As the cold autumn NYC winds are whistling outside, the hobos roast marshmallows over flaming barrels of garbage. While everyone sleeps in NYC, the sound of sanitation workers spitting on the cold cement run rampant. Janitors are busy mopping the floors of the NYSE, while listening to meringue music—ignorant to what had transpired there the day prior.

In the NYC subways, young criminals are riding the train looking for a few iPods to steal. God willing, they may find someone stupid enough to flash an iphone, if only life were that good.

All around NYC, people scrounge around with hunched backs, worrying about margin clerks and how they will be able to retire off of such little capital. The drug dealers in Washington Heights are upset over the sudden lack of rich white kids, who once flooded their neighborhood in BMW’s, looking for blow.

The mood is somber and the times are desperate.

Once well to do Wall Street bankers find themselves without pay for the 6th consecutive month. And fledgling stock brokers, with an arrogant book of business, are suddenly saddled with large losses and several meetings with the frolicking faggots from FINRA.

In some dark corners of the city, old Asian men sell gremlins to old white guys, in order to put food on the table. And at the local sperm bank, the lines are long and the literature appears worn.

There is a certain seriousness to the city, as men with ski masks flash 357’s on liquor store cashiers and pundits, with oversized heads and undersized brains, crowd the studios of Fox news to say NO to more government bailouts.

At the 24 hour Pathmark, men with bad habits and a lot of debt stock the shelves with peanut butter jars and make sure the produce section is stocked with fresh bok choy, for the old Asian men who enjoy eating it with dinner.

Inebriated single, middle aged, women hurry themselves home, following another night of nothingness. And, at the zoo, the retarded nice goat, named Leonardo, pecks away at Lester the monkey, as if he were made from grass.

And in a far away land, many miles away from where indigenous marshmallow lovers knife each other in the scrotum, over the “nice flaming barrel of garbage,” men eating bok choy are putting a bottom in the world equity markets " The Fly

Considered by Sea Farrers' to be a "Hole"

Have 33 minutes to actually understand what has happened to our Economy - Do you have the patience of 33 minutes - to know rather than to guess?