Monday, June 1, 2009

The Economy - Boise, Idaho - Point of View

(Since no one really reads all this stuff - let me say that the Stock Market is rising to 9,000 and then will hold and eventually pull back (to as much as 7500) after the buyers lose their patience for recovery and the weary hype that will drown in itself.  Oil is increasing for the "wishing price" by the producers and sellers - it too may hit 75 but will eventually reduce itself to the low 50's. Real Estate like a bad batch of Muffins - has squatted to rise and will once again get "cooked in the squat.")

In any event - President Obama and his team will be winning world records in handling the problem that was mostly created by the Bush Administration - and holdover bad economic situations that had been created since the 1970's (when the unions crippled the auto industry - a two month industry Union Strike, that gave them the Power! The Seed was planted in the 1970's and I have no sympathy for the millions of workers who chewed on the fat until the plants closed - they were overpaid  since the mid 1970's had the best unemployment, best retirement plans and best medical insurance - Wow!  Can you imagine they are very disturbed that the ship sunk!)  I feel very sorry for all the auto people - but it was an obvious result.

Boise Idaho population about 225,000. Capital of Idaho.  College town: 10% of total population is represented by Students and Faculty.  Largest Employer: Micron Technology 10,000.

Boise is a well known entry to the surrounding Mountain Area in Fishing, Rafting, etc. Hunting, skiing, and other Mountain Recreation sports - winter and summer. 

Real Estate - The current dilemma: At June 1st 2009, There are a record number of unsold homes and previously owned homes for sale.  Rental rates are sinking 30% - as a confluence of ordinary rentals and Homes for sale/ turned into rentals are sinking the market.  There appears to be no recovery in Real Estate "for sale" and now "for rent" in sight.*

Employment - Unemployment in the last 12 months has gone up from 4.5 to 8.6% of total employment.

No current Recovery in sight.

*people are moving out of houses they can't afford - failing to sell the house, they are trying to rent the house while for sale - so the rent will pay the mortgage, insurance and taxes - which of course the rent will not do.  Then they are renting something they are paying rent on where they moved, plus all or some of the costs of the house they cannot Afford, Sell or Rent.
....I guess I would call this....Getting in Deeper

On a Macro Level (USA)

What Hasn't Changed (at all)?
The employment problem
The Real Estate problem
Transition of Failed Economics
Real Estate
Government Costs

What Has Changed?
A better smarter Administration
The Beginning of Transition of Failed Businesses
Automobile Industries
Banks and Financial Institutions
The price of Oil and Gas 
States, Cities and Towns - regrouping
Republican Party looks permanently paralysed
The general population has begun saving
spending less
using less credit/increase in Debit Cards
Borrowing less

What looks like progress but isn't
lower interest rates (no one is borrowing - Banks are hoarding)
Inflation - higher food prices - Oil rising without reason
Regrouping the Auto Industry - change will require 6 to 18 months
Regrouping the Financial Industry - the crooks are just looking for another twist

Just as an example - look at the weekend ads for Automobiles and Real Estate the Sellers have not changed how they were misleading consumers - It would be interesting to review 10 automobile sales - the same car, same dealer and see the differences in the prices - type of buyer (women, minorities, weak men)

Yesterday, you could reserve a quality room in a hotel, resort and it would be interesting to see the different rates paid by similar people - one example is $110 to $375 per nite/same room/same season/days of week/etc.... The Hotel Industry needs to be severely punished by the economy and the consumer - the consumer should take no prisoners

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