Thursday, May 28, 2009

Building list on next downturn of the Markets

Without any knowledge of the markets, the likely of making mistakes, a history of making big mistakes - an arrogance masking ignorance....I am anticipating the markets working their way up to 9,000 -

I posted this 2 months ago (March 23rd):

"My knowledge of the markets is limited and dangerous, having said that, My first impression of what is happening:
1. An enormous amount of $ is going to enter our Economy - This will Cause:
A. Inflation
B. The price of oil and comodities will begin to rise faster than other things.
C. The markets will stay at this level or increase to 9,000 - Next 3 mos.
D. The $ will fall against the other currencies of the world unless they fall too!

Republican "Senator Boner" will make lots of noise signifying nothing - he will eventually go limp."

So from 2+ months ago, we are getting close to 9,000. AFTER THAT I believe we will get at least a 1500 point downward adjustment - and then the markets will spend the remainder of the summer struggling in the range 7,500 to 9,000. Post labor day movements are anybody's guess. (Surprises? After all the restructuring of the Auto Industries - "Survivor Sales" will continue. Retail Food markets (divided by the likes of Winco and WalMart on one level, and the name brand retailers (Albertsons,etc.) will suffer a reality - Esp. the Brand Retailers.
The housing market is in it "pronounced" 4th round of recovery, without recovery in sight - will cause concern - a slower than anyone expected recovery. in the "Fool me Once, shame on you - Fool me Twice Shame on me" category - employment will begin to selectively get better - except people will start paying down more debt (a form of savings) and will begin real "Hoarding" another form of savings.)

During the time in a lower range I will be purchasing 2011 Call options in the following companies and ETF's

Cisco Systems
Natural Gas

I currently hold long-term a large # of shares in PWE
I have a 20% hedge position in PWE "Puts"
I will be increasing this position hedge position to 50%
PWE is both an oil play a fairly large dividend play

I currently hold long term calls in GE, INTC and some gambling positions in XTXI (stock) and Clearwire (Call options)

PS. Yesterday, I heard an interview by Larry Kudlow with former Vice President Cheney - Dead Men Talking!

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