Downturn is going to last a long time is presented by the over 40 crowd that have no feeling for the speed with which things have to move faster in the 21st Century - This revival will be burning with speed - anything else will be intolerable. Unintended Consequences? Sure they are always the surprise - how exciting!
I guess the best way to begin to build a 2009 -2010 portfolio from scratch would think about the date the market will begin its slow but big turn - Which if the Obama Team develops the proper plan to put $3 Trillion to work in Harmony. I would say that March to June will be the "Field Testing" of a no pork congress moving bills (as they were presented) quickly to Companies who know how to get the Job Done.
Dollar Cost Averaging along with Diversification (not necessarily by industry) would be the method.
The following is the beginning of my list of (to be developed) Core Holdings:
subsequent additions 1/6/09
as a group:
That is my beginning list - the reasons are that the first 7 are 2nd to none at what they do.
The last three have been trampled upon and are ready to find a median value which is about double the current prices. My personal feelings - Intel is the strongest best managed company in the universe - bar none (see what an idiot I am?) In dollar cost averaging I would "top heavy" the first 7 with $5 for $3 with the exception of AAPL and BRK/A /B I would weight inversely.
If you have any suggestions - I will move this list forward - If you comment this post - I'll add it with your suggestion and the Why.
ps. Mortality Considerations. There is no doubt that Steven Jobs (APPLE) is having health problems - considering the nature of his first bout - most die from pancreatic cancer the first time around. Warren Buffett is no spring chicken and is considered the Company (BRK/A BRK/B) his demise would have a hard hit on the stock.
Both Companies are run by "People" but the market will play to "what is perceived." Therefore dollar cost averaging should move 3 months at a time - increasing another 3 months ++, etc. holding back amounts to be allocated to an unfortunate event for these companies where you would start averaging in at a big drop in price for the next 3 month period until these securities regain confidence and price.
pps. What about War, natural catastrophies, etc. - "These are the cost of doing Business" - nothing personal.
ppps. What about Banks and Financial Institutions? - I don't understand them - my weakness.
Finally, and for me, we are in a most exciting "time". Obama - is the promise - promised!