Saturday, March 22, 2008

Bear Markets do not go straight down - in this relief

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This chart is where I began thinking.

The chart shows a gap to be filled between 140 and 150 - some traffic between 160 and 170 and heavy traffic 170 to 180
The current price is above the 20 day moving average of 125.02. The stock could possibly find resistance at the 50 day moving average of 134.33.
The 200 day moving average is above at 149.01
From Andy Swan:
First, note the double top price formation. The top was 200, and the neckline was 160...indicating a 40 point (200 - 160) measured move to the downside after the high volume neckline break. 40 points from 160 indicated a move to 120.

Second, note the stability at 120...the price point at which the measure move was completed. There was a push as low as 115, but AAPL stabilized right at 120 for the most part. This created a solid support level, which provides the Bulls with confidence.

Third, note the pivot bottom that created with the pivot point at 115. The pivot bottom has matured into an ascending triangle, and AAPL is now putting pressure on the ascending triangle resistance level of approximately 132.00. A resistance break would be a bullish indication for AAPL, and the measured move indicates a push to 149.00 (just below the massive psychological barrier of 150.00).

126.73 -6.54 points (-4.91%) below the current price
119.04 - Heaviest
135.36 2.09 points (1.57%) above the current price
161.36 28.09 points (21.08%) above the current price
166 - heavier
178.78 45.51 points (34.15%) above the current price
186 - heaviest
194.84 61.57 points (46.20%) above the current price

My time frame is just beyond the quarterly earnings report- April 23rd - I'm up for extended dates - as the rise in option values streams through all the call options - yes some more than others. I'm looking for what you guys would do feeling that AAPL is going to give better than good numbers and it's been beaten down - where would you go in price and month, etc. April 17th 135 is $5.20, July150 is 7.60 and as you say 145 is 9.25. Actually, I would prefer May options, as I would sell going into earnings - I don't like holding anything going thru earnings - there are some good $'s to be made - but I'm not into the opposite - getting killed in a gamble.

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