Sunday, September 9, 2007
la grande poussée (the big push) - Monday
The Market is in a "no way to go" (zugzwang) position without groups pulling or pushing - the volatility. What is apparent:
All the false Wall Street "injections" of spin have become wearing
The Plunge Protection Team headed by Hank Paulson is out of tools
Bernanke - can do something but he is losing his ability to affect the market for more than 3 days. Many think he will hold back (whatever the cost) until September 18.
Apple is over sold, Rim is over bought - the markets are somewhere between Denial and Fear. Denial holds a market...Fear is the prelude to Panic. Early Fear will bring the markets down 2%, in one day, Panic 4-6% in a day followed by 10% the next week.
There being very little inflation is a fantasy. As it goes now - Holiday sales are going to be pathetic. Business Failures will increase, unemployment will increase and the Punch Line will be January 1st, 1988.
Large Traders who can move the markets long enough to make them crazy (an hour or two) in the short run will create more fear.
There use to be a rule of thumb that the markets project 6 months down the road. I guess I remember that from the 1970's - I would say in the 21st century that would and should be between 2 and 3 month - trading now reflecting October - November economic conditions.
A long-term investor is never wrong being in "Solid Gold" companies: INTC, MSFT, CSCO, MMM, PG, MRK, GOOG, Johnson + Johnson, AMGN, BRK.A, BRK.B, GLW, Walgreens, Target, and Finally, S&P Diversified Financial Index - to name a few. There are ETF's that have many of the above - in one security - for example Profunds Technology Fund (It however, performs a 150% gain or loss - it's a leveraged fund)
The securities that are mentioned above will be my diversified portfolio "after the fall." I own none of the at this time.
Short-term investors should be in cash at the end of every day
The Markets Tomorrow, Monday September 10, will be very exciting - only to be outplayed by Tuesday, September 11 (9/11). The New Moon and Solar Eclipse...faster and more exciting than International Soccer.
It' all going to be an illusion (focus on the following - for a few moments - are the circles in the image turning? - or is it an illusion - Don't be fooled by the "spin")
(FOR FULL EFFECT - CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE)